First Solar (FSLR) Aktie: Kaufen oder nicht? Die Finanz-YouTuber-Analyse

The YouTuber suggests avoiding First Solar because the proposed changes to tax credits are expected to reduce end-market demand for solar panels. This would negatively affect the company's revenue and margins, especially given existing uncertainties about subsidies and import rules that have already impacted its backlog growth.

“For a manufacturer like First Solar or for Nphase or for Solar Edge, that means that end market demand is going to be down for them.” — ▶ 4:25

Travis Hoium advises avoiding First Solar due to significant headwinds not fully priced into the stock. He highlights that over three-quarters of the company's gross profit comes from U.S. government subsidies (Section 45X credits), which are at risk of policy changes. Additionally, the company's sales guidance for 2025 has been significantly cut, backlog is declining while production increases, and tariffs are impacting margins, making the stock appear expensive when subsidies are excluded from earnings.

“If you pull out this 1.65 to $1.7 billion in tax credits, suddenly a vast majority of that net income disappears. Now suddenly the stock is trading for 30 or 40 times earnings. That is a really expensive stock, especially when you're looking at backlog dropping and potentially margins dropping in the future.” — ▶ Clip ansehen

The analyst advises avoiding First Solar due to its heavy reliance on Section 45x tax credits, which account for a significant portion of its operating income and make the stock appear much more expensive without them. Additionally, the company's bookings are declining despite capacity expansion, and increased competition in the US solar market could further erode profitability.

“this is one of the reasons that I'm not as bullish on First Solar at this point and currently at this price is just the Reliance that they have on those subsidies and the fact that that backlog is dropping” — ▶ 10:00

Travis Hoium argues that First Solar's stock is overvalued and risky due to its heavy reliance on 45x tax credits, which account for a significant portion of its gross margin and operating income. He highlights that the company's backlog is falling, and its competitive position is diminished outside of North America where subsidies are not a factor. The analyst believes that if these subsidies are reduced or removed, the company's profitability would vanish, and its competitive advantage would erode as more manufacturing capacity comes online, driving down prices and margins for all players.

“I just don't think that's a good position no matter what happens with the election and we don't know from a policy perspective what is going to change over the next couple of years and what's not but typically these subsidies are not something that is going to drive long-term value to investors.” — ▶ 10:00

The analyst advises avoiding First Solar stock due to significant uncertainty surrounding government subsidies, particularly the Inflation Reduction Act. Approximately two-thirds of the company's operating income is derived from these tax credits, making its profitability highly vulnerable to political and policy changes. While the stock's current valuation appears reasonable, removing these subsidies would make it significantly overvalued, and the market has not yet priced in this risk.

“This is not a stock that I'm buying right now because of the uncertainty around these subsidies.” — ▶ 10:00

The analyst is considering selling First Solar due to its high valuation, with a market cap over $30 billion and an Enterprise Value to sales multiple of 8.5 for a manufacturing company. He notes that a significant portion of its gross margin (about 50%) and operating income (about two-thirds) comes from potentially unsustainable tax credits. Historically, solar companies with high valuations and reliance on subsidies have faced challenges from increased competition and changing market dynamics.

“I'm actually considering selling the stock. This is a stock that I've owned for a very long time but at the end of the day this is a manufacturing company this is not a company that's going to scale infinitely in the tech Universe.” — ▶ 00:40