Disney (DIS) Aktie: Kaufen oder nicht? Die Finanz-YouTuber-Analyse

The YouTuber has owned Disney for a while, noting its underwhelming stock performance and perceived loss of reputation, which has increased its risk. He is holding his shares, believing the brand is strong enough for a long-term recovery, but acknowledges it requires patience.

“Now Disney I've owned for a while and the stock's actually been far it's been far more underwhelming than I would have expected... I am still watching and I'm still holding my shares to see where it all shakes out.” — ▶ 16:10

The analyst believes Disney is a strong long-term buy despite recent short-term market disappointment. He argues that the experiences segment is consistently growing and will benefit from significant future investments. While entertainment and sports segments are currently volatile, he expects them to improve significantly in the next five years as streaming becomes more profitable and a strong movie slate is released. The current valuation, with a mid-teens P/E multiple, is considered attractive for a company with such long-term staying power.

“I think the valuation for Disney is just too good to ignore right now. You can see that the entire enterprise value is only about $250 billion right now. But the priced to earnings multiple on a trailing basis 16.5 forward basis 15.5.” — ▶ 10:00

The YouTuber likes Disney for its unparalleled brands, parks, and the future of its streaming services (Disney+, Hulu, ESPN). He sees ESPN becoming a growth business and notes the company's successful cost cuts and improving content. Despite some debt, he finds the 18 P/E multiple attractive, especially considering the profitability of its Parks and Experiences segment and the potential for streaming price increases and bundling.

“And you're getting a really good valuation. Price earnings multiple is just 18. Yes, there's a little bit of debt on the balance sheet, but nothing that's too unmanageable at about net debt of about $40 billion.” — ▶ 6:40

The analyst is bullish on Disney due to its strong experiences business, which is undergoing a $60 billion expansion over the next decade, and its streaming segment. The streaming business is becoming profitable, and the upcoming ESPN over-the-top service is expected to create a 'cancel-proof' bundle, potentially surpassing Netflix in profitability due to its unique sports content. The stock is currently trading at 18 times forward earnings, which the analyst considers a good value.

“I think there's actually a much brighter feature for the company than a lot of people think they're entering a transition point with their experiences business and they have scale that nobody else really has.” — ▶ 00:00:10

The analyst is bullish on Disney due to strong guidance for fiscal years 2025-2027, including high single-digit and double-digit EPS growth. The primary catalyst is the upcoming ESPN direct-to-consumer offering in Fall 2025, which is expected to significantly boost streaming subscribers and revenue by leveraging Disney's extensive sports rights and advertising infrastructure built through Hulu. Additionally, improved content strategy and new park additions contribute to the positive outlook.

“I think based on what management said on the conference call that's probably pretty conservative but that would mean that shares are trading about 30 times 2027 earnings seems a little bit expensive but I think it's worth going over exactly the reason that I am bullish on where Disney is today and where this starts is with streaming.” — ▶ 4:00

The YouTuber recommends buying Disney, highlighting its robust parks business as a stable revenue source and its strategic advantage in streaming. Disney's ability to raise prices and its scale, especially with ESPN's potential over-the-top move, position it to acquire top-tier content and further grow its subscriber base, reinforcing its market position.

“Disney continuing to a little bit slower add subscribers but they're raising prices and they have much more scale than a lot of these competitors.” — ▶ 13:25

The analyst believes Disney stock is attractive due to its unloved status by the market and potential for long-term growth. He expects strength in parks and experiences, and the direct-to-consumer business (Disney+, Hulu, ESPN) is moving towards profitability and subscriber growth, which should improve the company's fundamentals and valuation multiple. Additionally, the movie business is showing signs of a turnaround, further fueling the overall business.

“I think Disney's business is trending in the right direction the valuation looks really attractive so you add two of those those two things together and I think that could really fuel the stock over the next 5 to 10 years.” — ▶ 10:00

The YouTuber argues that Disney's recent box office successes with 'Inside Out 2' and 'Deadpool & Wolverine' signal a revitalization of its studio content, which is the critical starting point for its 'waterfall' business model. This content success is expected to boost revenue, strengthen the brand, and attract more subscribers to its streaming services, ultimately improving the company's financials and stock performance into 2025.

“this could be a phenomenal year for Disney at the box office and really Revitalize the company's financials and even the stock going into 2025” — ▶ 10:00

Travis Hoium argues that Disney's animation studios are back on track, evidenced by the strong box office performance of 'Inside Out 2' and upcoming promising releases like 'Deadpool and Wolverine' and 'Moana 2'. He believes this content success will drive growth for Disney+ subscriptions and theme park attendance, which are more significant revenue drivers than the box office itself, indicating a positive momentum shift for the company.

“Generally I think this was a great sign for Disney seems like studios are at least moving in the right direction making the kind of content that people want to see want to go see with their families.” — ▶ 10:00

The YouTuber sold Disney at a loss, regretting not fully appreciating the decline of its linear cable business, which outweighed the growth of Disney Plus. He admits to being greedy and not considering the bearish signals, leading to an 'unforced error' and a significant loss.

“I believe the biggest problem with my analysis on Disney was not fully appreciating how bad a huge portion of their business was. The cable assets, Disney's loss could have been avoided at many, many points throughout history.” — ▶ Clip ansehen

The YouTuber advises caution with Disney due to ongoing business problems, particularly in its movie division and theme parks, which would be negatively impacted by a recession. While a long-term turnaround is possible, significant short-term issues need resolution.

“So, you need to be very, very cautious with this stock.” — ▶ 4:00

The YouTuber expresses caution on Disney due to ongoing business problems that are not easily resolved. While acknowledging a recent run-up, he emphasizes that the decision to hold or invest further depends on one's belief in CEO Bob Iger's ability to fix these issues.

“this one to me is kind of a cautious pump in even actually despite the bigger run up it kind of makes me even more cautious about it just because it had such a nice run up” — ▶ 2:45