Learn to Invest - Investors Grow: analisi azionarie e scelte

The YouTuber owns ASML in his high-quality portfolio, praising its strong moat as a maker of semiconductor machines. He bought it at $700 and it's now around $1700, making it a major portfolio driver. He would consider adding more if it ever returned to an ideal entry price, though it's currently far from it.

“ASML is a company I already own in my highquality portfolio. This is a great company... I actually bought this company when it was back at like 700 bucks a share and it's at like $1,700 a share right now... if it ever happens to get back to an ideal entry price, that would be great.” — ▶ 11:30

The YouTuber is bullish on ASML, citing its monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, which are critical for producing advanced semiconductor chips. He performed a detailed discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, adjusting for the company's unique revenue recognition and cash flow timing, which he argues makes the current fair value estimate of $699 conservative. He also notes that the stock appears reasonably valued based on its historical P/E multiple compared to the industry average.

“With that in mind, I'm very interested in this company. I'm certainly adding it to my bullpen. And if I can get just a little bit more of a pullback, give me a little bit more of a margin of safety. I intend on buying this company.” — ▶ 30:00

The YouTuber recently did a video on Palantir and finds it an 'interesting company' with a 'more defensible' software position than some peers. He is watching it but notes it's 'not quite at the price that I'd be looking for just yet.'

“I just recently did a video on Palunteer. That one is added to the bullpen as you can see... Not quite at the price that I'd be looking for just yet, but it's it is an interesting company from a software perspective.” — ▶ 14:00

The YouTuber believes Palantir is a unique company with sticky customers and a strong balance sheet, well-positioned to benefit from AI due to its data organization capabilities. While currently slightly overvalued based on a discounted cash flow model, he would consider buying if the stock pulls back to incorporate a 10% margin of safety from his calculated fair value of $138 per share.

“I'm going to add this one to my watch list because if the opportunity gets there I do want to jump in and buy this.” — ▶ 10:00

The YouTuber is excited about Mastercard, noting it recently dropped below his ideal entry price. While acknowledging potential industry headwinds for payment processors due to evolving technology and banks moving to bank-to-bank transfers, he sees it as a 'real opportunity right now' and plans a deeper dive.

“Just recently, Mastercard has hit has dropped below the ideal entry. Now, this one is one of the ones that I'm most excited about because to me, Mastercard is a real interesting company... at first glance, Mastercard looks like a real opportunity right now.” — ▶ 5:00

The YouTuber owns a small piece of Adobe and finds it interesting, despite acknowledging AI poses both a threat and an opportunity. He notes the stock has been 'absolutely killed' due to these concerns, making it a potentially interesting buy if one is willing to take on the added risk.

“Adobe is one of those I have a small piece in Adobe. I do think it's an interesting company. I do think that what is happening with AI is both a threat and they can be a beneficiary of it. So I do think that there's added risk there, but the stock's been absolutely killed because of it. So this could be an interesting one if we're willing to take the risk.” — ▶ 14:40

The YouTuber identifies The Trade Desk as an advertising platform similar to Google and Meta, but as a third-party option. He uses a discounted free cash flow model to determine a fair value of $40 per share, with an ideal entry point below $32 after applying a 20% margin of safety. He is waiting for the stock to reach this price.

“I get a fair value of $40 per share that I get using discounted free cash flow. Then we add a margin of safety... And we get a ideal entry of somewhere below $32 per share.” — ▶ 1:00

The YouTuber finds Docimity, a niche messaging app for doctors, 'interesting' due to its impressive functionality. He acknowledges potential AI threats but also opportunities for AI integration. He keeps it in his bullpen, hoping it falls to an 'amazing price' for a potential buy.

“Docimity is an interesting company... it's actually an impressive app it's a very niche app... I got it in the bullpen just in case it falls to an amazing price.” — ▶ 17:50

The YouTuber is a fan of Ulta Beauty, having bought it around $390-400. He considers it a 'great long-term buy and hold' due to solid growth and profit margins. He owns the stock and plans to add more if it pulls back to a more attractive price.

“I'm a big fan of this company... I bought this company, I think around 390, 400, something like that... Could be a great long-term buy and hold. I already own this one. I plan on maybe adding more if it were to pull back to a good price.” — ▶ 10:40

The YouTuber considers Microsoft one of his favorite companies and has owned it for a while. He would 'love to jump in and buy a bit more' if the stock were to reach a good fair value level.

“Microsoft's one of my favorite companies. I own Microsoft. I've owned it for a while. And this one's in here because if it does get to a good fair value level, I'd love to jump in and buy a bit more of this.” — ▶ 15:50

The YouTuber views Home Depot as an interesting long-term investment, similar to Lowe's. He would 'love to own' it if he could acquire shares at a good price, noting its resilience after facing COVID-related headwinds.

“Both of them are interesting companies... I think both of those companies could be interesting long-term investments if you got these at a good price. Great job, cuz the these are two stocks much like Visor Mastica that I would love to own at the right price.” — ▶ 10:00

The YouTuber sees Lowe's as an interesting long-term investment, believing there's a better chance it will hit his fair value target compared to Home Depot. He would 'love to own' it at the right price, acknowledging it faced and recovered from COVID-related headwinds.

“Lowe's, I think there's a better chance that that hits the fair value. I haven't gotten quite to the ideal entry yet, but both of them are interesting companies... I would love to own at the right price.” — ▶ 10:00

The YouTuber owns Occidental Petroleum and is considering selling, stating he is 'closer to selling this one than I am to buying more.' He notes the stock has performed well due to volatile oil and gas prices, and he might take profits, as he's not excited about the company at current prices.

“Occidental Petroleum, ticker symbol OXY, and this is an oil and gas company. And this is another one of those that I own. I'm actually closer to selling this one than I am to buying more.” — ▶ 8:00

The YouTuber previously bought Hims and Hers around $19 per share and considers it a long-term investment in his buy-and-hold portfolio. He is holding his current position and would consider adding more if the stock pulls back to an attractive price again.

“This one I actually did buy. I bought it. It dropped down into $19 or so a share. I bought it in that range... This one's a long-term investment. This one has landed in my long-term buy and hold portfolio.” — ▶ 3:50

The YouTuber previously owned and sold Intel, but would be 'curious to update my research' and potentially buy again if it returned to its ideal entry price. He notes the stock has gone 'absolutely crazy' and is currently far above his desired entry.

“I no longer own Intel. I sold it a while back. Although, if it did get back to its ideal entry price, I'd be curious to update my research on it.” — ▶ 12:20

The YouTuber has researched Uber and likes the company, noting it's already below his ideal entry price. However, he has 'question marks' and is waiting for the stock to settle and potentially begin recovering before initiating a purchase, despite its current low valuation.

“Uber is really on here because I want to monitor it but I do have some question marks about it. But Uber... I'm waiting to see kind of where it settles off. Where's you know, let it bottom out, maybe even start recovering a little bit before I jump in and buy.” — ▶ 1:55

The YouTuber owns a small piece of CVS, having initially liked its merger with Aetna. He believes they haven't fully capitalized on synergies but is watching to see if performance improves over time, currently just holding his position.

“I do have a small piece in CBS and it's one of those that I'm watching to see if it gets better as time goes on, but for now I'm just leaving it in bullpen to see where it goes.” — ▶ 17:20

The YouTuber has owned Disney for a while, noting its underwhelming stock performance and perceived loss of reputation, which has increased its risk. He is holding his shares, believing the brand is strong enough for a long-term recovery, but acknowledges it requires patience.

“Now Disney I've owned for a while and the stock's actually been far it's been far more underwhelming than I would have expected... I am still watching and I'm still holding my shares to see where it all shakes out.” — ▶ 16:10

The YouTuber currently owns Alibaba and notes it's at a 'decent level.' He acknowledges geopolitical risks but is watching for a significant opportunity to potentially add to his position, though he's not actively buying more at the current price.

“Alibaba. That one I do own, and it's at a decent level now, but I'm not sure I need to add more to my position at this point. I understand there's a bit more geopolitical risk with that type of company, but it is one that I want to watch.” — ▶ 3:00

The YouTuber owns Apple, having bought it around $140 per share. He holds his position and does not indicate any immediate plans to buy or sell, simply mentioning his existing holding.

“I do own Apple. Apple I have it about $140 something dollars per share.” — ▶ 13:00

The YouTuber owns a small position in AT&T, having bought it around $18 per share. He holds it for its dividend and views it as a long-term buy-and-hold, despite it not being a 'sexy company,' and monitors it closely.

“AT&T I still hold. It pays a dividend. It's doing its thing. It's not a terribly sexy company, but it is an interesting from a interesting company from a long-term buy and hold standpoint.” — ▶ 8:50

The analyst is avoiding VICI for now due to concerns about its growth being heavily reliant on new acquisitions, which may be harder to find in the current interest rate environment. While acknowledging its undervaluation and high dividend yield, the concentration risk with two major tenants and potential renegotiations also contribute to the cautious stance.

“For me, on a personal basis, I'm going to skip this one for now. Too much of their growth is tied to their ability to find new deals, and I think big deals, at least in the near term, are likely to be a little tougher to find.” — ▶ 16:00

The YouTuber expresses a preference for Booking over Airbnb after his research, citing Booking's stronger growth in recent years, higher take rate, and successful expansion into new market segments like airline tickets. He indicates that Booking will be his next deep-dive research project, implying a positive outlook.

“But after my research, frankly, I'm far more interested in a company like Booking.” — ▶ 12:28

The YouTuber suggests holding Airbnb if already owned, as it appears undervalued based on discounted free cash flow analysis and is a significant player in its market. However, he expresses concerns about its expansion into the hotel market, believing it will be an uphill battle that could compress profit margins and reduce the company's unique brand appeal, making it less exciting than in previous years.

“Now, for me, I think that although this company looks undervalued, if I already owned it, if I've owned it, let's say I've owned it for a few years, this is probably a good long-term buy and hold.” — ▶ 12:00

The analyst suggests avoiding Lululemon at its current price, despite acknowledging it as a strong company with good long-term prospects. He notes that while the stock has been beaten down, he desires a larger discount from his calculated fair value of $186 per share to increase the margin of safety. Significant concerns remain regarding pressure on US sales due to tariffs and regulatory uncertainty, which could impact profit margins.

“If a stock could pull back a little bit more, I think this one could be a bit more interesting. But I do hesitate with the amount of pressure that's currently in place for this company in the United States.” — ▶ 12:00

The analyst believes Shopify is currently overvalued, trading at $161 per share compared to a fair value of $99 based on discounted free cash flow. Its forward P/E of 97x is historically high, suggesting investors are paying too much for future earnings compared to past opportunities. He advises patience, waiting for a significant pullback before considering an investment.

“For me, as much as I like Shopify and Shopify's business, and I do like their business, I do think it is good, and this is a company I want to add to my watch list, but to me, it's just way too overpriced in the right.” — ▶ 10:00

The analyst believes Salesforce is undervalued, with a fair value of $327 per share compared to its current trading price of $260. This is based on strong free cash flow estimates, improved operating margins due to a shift from growth to profitability, and a growing backlog (RPO). The company has also become more investor-friendly by initiating a dividend and buying back shares.

“Using those free cash flow estimates, we end up with a fair value of about 327 per share. Considering the stock's trading at about 260 per share, the stock looks reasonably undervalued.” — ▶ 15:00

The YouTuber recommends avoiding Atkore stock due to a loss of trust in management, who previously insisted profit margins would not tumble but did. The company is also facing lawsuits alleging price manipulation, and while the stock appears undervalued based on free cash flow, the long-term investability is questionable given these issues. Competitors like Hubbell or Schneider Electric are considered more attractive.

“I've completely lost trust in management given the fact that they were insisting profit margins wouldn't continue to Tumble and they did so I'm out on adcore stock.” — ▶ 11:00

The YouTuber plans to add Adcore (ATKR) to his portfolio, viewing it as an undervalued small-cap company with long-term potential. He argues that the recent 35% pullback is an overreaction to cyclical industry trends and temporary pricing effects, rather than a fundamental deterioration. His discounted cash flow analysis, using conservative estimates, suggests a fair value of $143 per share, offering a significant margin of safety from its current price below $100. He also notes its current PE ratio of 6.4x is below its historical average and the industry average, indicating undervaluation.

“this is a company that I want to add to my Investment Portfolio I intend on adding it” — ▶ 20:00

The YouTuber advises avoiding CrowdStrike stock despite a recent pullback, as discounted cash flow analysis suggests it remains significantly overvalued even after accounting for potential long-term free cash flow. The company's history of unprofitability and the recent outage's potential impact on future revenue growth and customer churn also raise concerns, making it a less attractive investment at current prices.

“so in my mind I think it makes more sense to hold off on crowd strike in fact I think we're far better off looking at some of the competitors as it's possible some companies whether they keep crowd strike or get rid of them if they get rid of them some competitors of crowd strike could be the beneficiary here or even if they don't get rid of them like I said before there might be some redundancy needs to prevent things like this happening going forward and it's possible other companies are there to try to fill in that Gap and maybe they can pick up some of the slack some of them you know the benefic some of the benefits of crowd strikes error so for me on a personal basis I have to pass on this one” — ▶ 15:00

The YouTuber suggests Valero is undervalued, with a fair value of $230 per share compared to its current price of $150, based on discounted cash flow. This assessment is supported by its price-to-earnings multiple being at the lower end of its historical range and Enterprise Value to EBITDA also indicating undervaluation based on 5 and 10-year averages. The company also offers a reliable 3% dividend yield.

“using kind of free cash flow which for me many times is my favorite valuation method well we could see that the fair value is at about 230 per share while the stocks trading slightly over 150 per share so Valero looks like an interesting one” — ▶ 14:50

The YouTuber identifies EOG Resources as potentially undervalued, with a fair value of $133 per share against a current price of $125, offering a 7% margin of safety via discounted cash flow. Price-to-earnings and Enterprise Value to EBITDA multiples also suggest undervaluation, particularly when considering 10 and 20-year averages, and the company pays a 4% dividend.

“using discount of free cash flow that right now the fair value for this stocks at about 133 bucks a share and the current price is about $125 per share that gives us a margin of safety about 7% now that's a bit low for me on a margin of safety perspective but depending what our research tells us this could be an interesting one to at least add to the bullpen” — ▶ 11:45

The YouTuber suggests Sempra could be undervalued based on its price-to-earnings multiple, especially when comparing it to its five and ten-year averages after removing anomalous data points. While the 20-year average suggests it's slightly overvalued, a drop to 12-14x P/E would make it a 'screaming sale'.

“clearly this chart's a bit easier to see that well this stock is undervalued when you look at both the five and the 10 year averages but slightly overvalued when you look at the 20-year average so depending on what our research tells us clearly if this stock gets down to let's say 12 13 14x this thing could be a screaming sale but even right now it could be a bit undervalued and worth at least researching and putting in our Bullpen” — ▶ 10:00

The YouTuber indicates Chevron could be undervalued, with a fair value above $250 per share compared to its current price of $150, according to discounted cash flow analysis. While price-to-earnings suggests some undervaluation, Enterprise Value to EBITDA indicates it's closer to fairly valued or slightly overvalued, suggesting a potential pullback could offer a better entry point.

“we can see the current price is about 150 bucks per share the fair value using discount of free cash flow is up above 250 per share so this one looks like it could be undervalued using discount of free cash flow” — ▶ 17:30

The analyst calculates Caterpillar's fair value at $238 per share, making it currently overvalued at $332. Beyond valuation, a significant concern is the potential for Cat Financial, a subsidiary, to become too large and problematic, similar to GE Financial's issues during the financial crisis, despite no current evidence of malfeasance. This potential risk, combined with the current overvaluation, leads to an avoid recommendation.

“for me on a personal basis I'm going to not going to add cat Financial I mean cat not cat Financial cater biller to my Investment Portfolio I'm not even going to add this one to my Bullpen because I think that there are too many good opportunities out there” — ▶ 10:00