Adriconomics: analisi azionarie e scelte

The YouTuber suggests that if SpaceX's stock price reaches an absurdly high valuation, such as $400 per share, making it the biggest company by market cap, it would be an opportune moment to open a contrarian short bet. He believes such a valuation would be unsustainable and would lead to a crash as insiders sell off their shares.

“If this kind of craziness happens or better when it happens, my contrarian personality is telling me to buy put and open a contrarian short bet.” — ▶ 7:00

The YouTuber argues that SpaceX's IPO valuation of $1.77 trillion is massively overpriced and makes no sense given its current financial losses. He highlights that index funds are being forced to buy into this overvalued company due to rule changes, and investors receive no voting power. He suggests that buying into SpaceX at this valuation is akin to being exit liquidity for insiders.

“Basically, if you use numbers and rationality, you will never buy this company at $135 a share at almost $2 trillion valuation. It makes no sense whatsoever.” — ▶ 3:00

The YouTuber expresses an ongoing 'obsession' with Duolingo and has no reason to sell, despite the stock lagging behind other software companies and receiving comments to sell. He plans to continue holding the stock.

“Apart from hundreds comment of people saying I should sell Dolingo immediately, I do not have any reason to sell. So I will keep holding and see what happens.” — ▶ 09:05

The YouTuber considers Duolingo a 'no-brainer' and his favorite company, believing it's a highly misunderstood stock. He is addicted to the app, sees its continuous improvement, and has high conviction in its management and long-term potential, especially with AI integration, planning to buy more if the price drops.

“For me, it's really a no-brainer. I personally I'm addicted to the app. I think the app is working. It's great. It's like is improving very quickly and is getting better and better.” — ▶ 18:00

The YouTuber has high conviction in Duolingo, believing it was a good buy three months ago and is now much cheaper. They have been accumulating shares, making it their main holding, and intend to buy more, despite being down on the position.

“Even if I'm down 9K on Dualingo, my conviction is incredibly high. I believed it was a good buy three months ago and now it's much much cheaper. So, I want more.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber has high conviction in Duolingo, despite its recent 80% drop, believing humans will continue to value knowledge and learning. They praise its user experience, marketing, and founder-led management, considering it very undervalued with a forecaster target of $263.

“Dualingo best user experience, best marketing, founder, very undervalued with a $263 target on forecaster.” — ▶ 04:20

The YouTuber doubled down on Duolingo, arguing it is now in 'cheap territory' and undervalued at $125. He believes the app is sticky and effective, and expects it to reach new all-time highs within 2-3 years, potentially yielding a 350% return. He also cites a forecaster model suggesting a value of $263.

“Duolingo is finally on the cheap territory. So, I bought more. My guess is that Duolingo will see new all-time highs in the next 2, three years. That's a potential 350% return.” — ▶ 4:00

The YouTuber owns Duolingo despite it not being 'cheap' by his system, driven by personal use of the app. He states he will buy more if the stock crashes to $100, indicating a conditional buy trigger.

“If it crashes to $100, I’m buying more.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber, initially bearish due to high valuation and product concerns, changed his stance after the stock crashed 66%. He now believes Duolingo's valuation under $200 is fair, citing its improved product, strong AI data advantage, massive total addressable market beyond languages, and growing subscriber base. He sees potential for significant growth if they double paying subscribers.

“But Dualingo under $200 valuation finally makes sense. So this is the story of how I went from Aduelingo 100% bear to a Dualingo shareholder.” — ▶ 10:00

The YouTuber is looking at Duolingo as a potential buy, noting its strong fundamentals and rapid growth. However, he considers it currently too expensive and hopes for a further price decline to create a better buying opportunity, aligning with his contrarian strategy of buying stocks at lower prices.

“Another company I'm looking at is Dualingo. It's not cheap, so I really hope it keeps going down. It keeps crashing, but it's half price compared to three months ago. And it's a great company. very strong fundamentals growing very rapidly.” — ▶ 11:45

The YouTuber believes the market is wrong about Adobe, agreeing with Monish Pabri that software is more than just coding and disruption fears are overblown. Despite a negative narrative and some selling pressure, Adobe's revenue and cash flow are up, showing no clear signs of disruption. He sees it as a contrarian opportunity to invest in a hated company with strong fundamentals.

“However, as a contrarian, I'm very happy to invest in a hated company with a very negative story attached, but great, great numbers.” — ▶ 05:00

The YouTuber is bullish on Adobe, believing it is incredibly cheap and undervalued due to the AI narrative. He argues that Adobe is too strong and essential for designers to be disrupted, noting a significant disconnection between its share price and rising earnings.

“Adobe is like too strong of a company, too big of a company. Every like every designer in the world one way or another is forced to use Adobe. And the valuation like mama mia the valuation is really really cheap is like incredibly cheap.” — ▶ 15:00

The YouTuber is buying Adobe, their biggest holding, believing fears about AI impacting its moat are exaggerated. They find the valuation very compelling for such a dominant business, noting revenue and profits are up while the share price is down, with a forecaster target of $483.

“The mode is under pressure from AI, but fears are way exaggerated. Valuation is very compelling for such a dominant business. Personally, I edit with Adobe Premiere. I record the audio with Adobe Audition. I make the thumbnails with Adobe Photoshop. Revenue up, profits up, share price down to a stupid $260 versus $483 on Forecaster.” — ▶ 04:35

The YouTuber bought Adobe at just under $280, stating that $450 is the 'bare minimum reasonable price' and citing a forecaster model at $483. He believes the market's fear that AI will destroy software is overblown and that the company's rising revenue, profits, and decreasing share count indicate a strong underlying business that will eventually be reflected in the stock price.

“I think $450 for Adobe is the bare minimum reasonable price. The forecaster model is saying $483. That's impressive. Very close to my take.” — ▶ 7:20

The YouTuber argues that Adobe is 'stupidly undervalued,' with various scenarios showing outperformance. Even with a disaster scenario of 4% revenue growth, it outperforms the market. Moderate and bullish scenarios suggest 20-40% CAGR, making it a potential $1,000 stock.

“The point is, the stock is stupidly, stupidly undervalued. No matter what you really do with the assumptions, even if we go with the most stupid disaster scenario, the company grows at 4% revenues, you still end up outperforming the market over the next 3 years.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber is waiting to buy Adobe if its stock price drops below $300, or ideally under $280. He believes the current valuation is good, and the negative sentiment around AI competition from Canva is overblown, as professionals still rely on Adobe. However, he identifies risks such as a weakening competitive moat, the potential for AI to reduce seat-based revenue, and widespread customer dissatisfaction with pricing, necessitating a significant discount for investment.

“Whatever the reason, if the stock crashes under 300 or ideally under 280, I will buy. At that price, we are back at 2019 levels. The upside becomes too good to resist.” — ▶ 9:00

The YouTuber is interested in buying Adobe if its stock price continues to fall. He views it as currently trading at 'very interesting prices' and wants to have cash available to capitalize on a potential further correction.

“Companies like Meta Amazon Salesforce, Adobe are already trading at very interesting prices. If they keep crashing, I want to have the cash ready to buy.” — ▶ 5:20

The YouTuber is a long-term 'hodler' and notes the current lack of buzz around Bitcoin, which often precedes a crypto bottom. He highlights a potential US government bill to purchase 1 million Bitcoin over five years, which would significantly increase demand and reduce supply, leading to an 'explosion' in price. He views this as an asymmetric risk-reward opportunity for contrarians.

“If this happened, Bitcoin price explode. To me, this seems like an asymmetric riskreward investment perfect for contrarians.” — ▶ 08:40

The YouTuber notes E.L.F. Beauty's strong revenue growth despite increased debt. He observes a double bottom on the chart and states he will buy 'big' if the stock continues to drop to the bottom of its channel, indicating it is already quite cheap based on valuation models.

“If you look at the chart, ELF just did a double bottom. Will this $50 support hold? I don't know. But if it keeps dropping at the bottom of this channel, I will buy big.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber sold Elf Beauty due to increased risk factors, including 75% product sourcing from China, uncertainty around a recent $1 billion acquisition of Road, and the stock price having nearly doubled since his entry. He took profits after a significant gain, feeling the risk-reward balance had shifted.

“Well, we are here at 117 with an increase in risk. I was happy to exit and take profit.” — ▶ 05:40

The YouTuber believes ELF Beauty is undervalued after a significant price drop, seeing it as a fast-growing disruptor with strong profit margins and effective digital marketing. He contrasts it with Estee Lauder, which he views as struggling with negative margins, no growth, and high debt. His valuation analysis suggests a fair price of at least $80, offering significant upside from the current price around $60.

“My valuation analysis, however, puts elf fair price at least at $80. Given the current price around 60, that serious upside potential, the market panicked on the slowdown without considering the underlying strength and relative value. For me, that's an opportunity.” — ▶ 6:00

The YouTuber holds E.L.F. Beauty, believing it remains fundamentally strong despite being heavily sold due to tariff fears. He expects it to adapt in the long run, possibly by raising prices.

“These companies were heavily sold due to tariffs fear, but I believe they remain fundamentally strong. All three produce in Asia, so might face more short-term pain, but I'm confident in the long run they will adapt” — ▶ 6:00

The YouTuber finds ELF Beauty even more compelling than Ulta, noting its 68% drop, trading at two-year-ago levels despite three times the revenue. He highlights its modern marketing approach, appeal to younger generations, and rapid growth, despite a recent stock crash.

“Also elf beauty is way more modern company to compared to other like big cosmetics giants and it's more into social media. Young generations are crazy for their brands, they have like several brands, but they're just better into modern marketing techniques and I think and they're growing very rapidly.” — ▶ 2:20

The YouTuber is waiting for Lululemon's next earnings report due to skepticism about fashion's moat. However, he believes the stock is undervalued, with high earnings and a low share price, and his valuation model suggests it is 'too cheap'. He would not be surprised if the bottom has already been seen.

“However, I would not be surprised if we have seen the bottom for Lule Lemon already last week and now we are about to see a big bounce. Lululemon earnings are high and the share price is low. Even my valuation model say Lululemon is just too cheap.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber plans to sell Abercrombie to buy Lululemon, citing strong fundamentals such as stable revenue (growing internationally), share buybacks, no long-term debt, good operating margins (20%), and positive free cash flow. He notes the forward P/E is around 13, and the stock has declined 66% from its peak while revenue has increased, making it an attractive contrarian buy.

“One trade I'm thinking to make is to sell a Bombroi to buy Lululemon. Lulu fundamentals are quite good. revenue is stable is declining a little bit in the US but it's growing very very rapidly internationally.” — ▶ 10:50

The YouTuber suggests Lululemon, acknowledging its inherent risk as a fashion company and recent US revenue decline. However, he highlights rapid growth in Asia and product improvements as positive catalysts. Despite volatility, his conservative valuation, assuming slower growth, indicates a fair price of $340 per share, representing a potential 70% return.

“Let's assume that their growth slows from 20% of the past decade down to just 5% with 19% operating margins and a risk score of 38 out of 100, I get a fair price of $340 per share.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber sees HubSpot as an opportunity to buy at 2019 levels despite revenue having quintupled, following an 80% price drop. He believes the risk of AI disruption is already priced in, noting strong revenue and cash flow, and more cash than debt.

“We have the opportunity to buy this company at 2019 levels while the revenue 5x or more. Again, will AI distract the CRM? If you think not, keep an eye on HubSpot.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber, having previously predicted a drop, now sees Sofi at $15 with strong fundamentals and a much more reasonable price. He suggests keeping an eye open for an entry point, given the YouTube hype and improved valuation.

“Now it is at $15 and the situation is very very different. The fundamentals are extremely strong and the price is much more reasonable. Considering the YouTube hype around this business, it deserve our attention. Keep an eye open for an entry point if you like SoFi.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber highlights that the new Fed governor could help SoFi's loan originations, allowing them to sell loans faster and invest more in marketing. This would attract more users and expand financial services, creating a positive flywheel effect, with potential S&P 500 inclusion as a bonus.

“This would end up allowing them to have more money to put into marketing to attract more users to then go out and, you know, find new products like level one options and crypto trading to give more financial services products to members.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber believes that at the current price of $30, SoFi presents an unfavorable risk-reward balance. While acknowledging its growth, they highlight significant risks including a potential economic slowdown impacting loan repayments, weak competitive moats, intense competition in fintech, and the assumption of continued perfect execution for future growth. They suggest the stock is not a bargain given these risks.

“The current $30 price, it's not a bargain for the significant economic and competitive risks you're taking on.” — ▶ 04:00

The YouTuber views Mercado Libre as a relatively safe investment, comparing it to a South American Amazon. He notes its consistent growth, despite margin pressure from capex investments, and believes the company is cheap based on his numbers and Forecaster charts.

“This company keeps growing like crazy year after year after year after year, going up up up. Margins are under pressure because they are investing a lot in capex. I imagine me Libra like a South American Amazon with a buy now pay later and other financial options that I don't really fully understand. So I would have to research more but looking at forecaster chart the company seems at discount and looking at my numbers I believe the company is cheap.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber believes MercadoLibre has the potential to become Latin America's first trillion-dollar business, with a long runway for future growth. The current price does not reflect its potential, making it one of the most attractive stocks for exposure to South America.

“I actually think that Marcado Libre is going to be Latin America's first trillion dollar business and it's one that I see myself holding for a very long time.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber is holding Novo Nordisk, believing the worst is behind the company after two years of negative news, including government price caps. He notes a significant disconnection between the share price and underlying fundamentals, suggesting it is very cheap, but expresses ethical concerns about big pharma.

“I'm keep holding Novo because I think after two years of bad news, check it out like two years just down. I think the worst part is finally behind us.” — ▶ 11:30

The YouTuber is buying Novo Nordisk, believing it is priced for failure despite being a 40-year-old pharma giant. They highlight its GLP-1 pill for weight loss, which they see as a miracle for over a billion overweight individuals, and their forecaster gives a target of $95.

“Priced for failure, but a 40-year-old pharma giant doesn't die easily. They sell the only GLP-1 pill that makes people lose weight. 30 years ago, that sounded like a miracle. Today over 1 billion overweight humans need that miracle forecaster $95.” — ▶ 03:50

The YouTuber holds Novo Nordisk, noting it's his most popular video topic. He is waiting for the stock to hit $80, implying a price target or a point at which he might re-evaluate, but currently maintains a holding position.

“Now I just need the stock to hit $80.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber is buying Novo Nordisk, having sold Google to fund the purchase. He believes Novo Nordisk has strong potential to outperform Google in the coming year, suggesting it might double again, unlike Google. He implies it offers better value and growth prospects.

“Don't you think that in 26 Novo will outperform Google?” — ▶ 6:00

The YouTuber argues Novo Nordisk is historically cheap despite recent negative sentiment due to lowered guidance and management changes. He believes the market is overreacting to concerns like Trump's drug cost talks, as the stock is trading below pre-GLP1 boom prices even though revenue has doubled. His conservative valuation suggests a fair price of $80.

“Under $50 is like the entire GLP1 boom never happened even while the revenue has doubled.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber believes Microsoft is a good deal due to a divergence where the price is decreasing while income and sales continue to rise. He notes this divergence is rare for Microsoft and sees it as an opportunity.

“If we see forecaster, we can see that there is a disconnection between the price that is going down while the income and the sales are keep going up. If you see this kind of divergence is quite rare on Microsoft.” — ▶ 7:00

The video highlights that Microsoft has been trading at its 200-day moving average for the first time in over 13 years, signaling a rare long-term buying opportunity for a high-quality company. It is considered undervalued by some analysts, with strong fundamentals and potential for future growth.

“When a quality stock like Microsoft falls down to that line, it signals a rare long-term buying opportunity.” — ▶ 2:00

Microsoft is considered a very compelling deal with a value ratio of 18, according to the YouTuber's framework. It is highlighted as the safest company among the Magnificent 7, contributing to its attractive valuation.

“By the way, Microsoft, it's also a very compelling deal at 18 according to this framework.” — ▶ 8:00

The YouTuber closed his position in Molina Healthcare because he doesn't understand the US insurance system, which is outside his circle of competence. He initially bought it based on extreme undervaluation but decided to exit after a profit, prioritizing understanding over pure valuation.

“I closed it because to be honest, this is really out of my circle of competence. I don't understand anything of the US insurance system.” — ▶ 8:40

The YouTuber is investing in Molina Healthcare due to its extremely low valuation, with a price-to-sales ratio of 0.15 and trading at five times normalized earning power. They believe the company can return to 3-4% operating margins despite recent management comments about 2026 margins, and their forecaster agrees with a fair value of $268.

“Molina Healthcare valuation is ridiculous. Price to sales ratio of.15 trading at five times normalized earning power. Investing here is about one question. Will they ever go back to 3 4% operating margins?” — ▶ 01:05

The YouTuber holds Molina as part of his insurance exposure, viewing it as a contrarian play in a currently 'hated' sector. He maintains a holding position.

“A contrarian investor like me needs some exposure to hated insurance stocks right now.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber bought Molina Healthcare due to its extremely low valuation, trading at 5.5 times a 5-year forward earning power, compared to a market average of over 20. Despite high exposure to Medicaid and current market fear, he believes the company is profitable and will revert to target margins, making it a bargain.

“Last week I bought 15,000 of each. 100 shares of Molina at 149.” — ▶ 5:00

The YouTuber recommends healthcare insurance companies, specifically Molina, as being very cheap and undervalued. He suggests them as a good opportunity for those with patience, having previously bought Oscar Health for a quicker bounce but now seeing Molina as a better current value.

“Instead, Saint Centine and Molina are still very, very cheap in my opinion, very undervalued.” — ▶ 13:00

The YouTuber is considering adding Molina to his portfolio, believing the entire healthcare insurance sector is undervalued. He notes that Molina trades at a lower forward P/E ratio (9) compared to UnitedHealth (18), which was recently bought by Berkshire Hathaway, suggesting it offers a better value proposition within the sector.

“I'm considering adding some centine or molina.” — ▶ 9:40

The YouTuber identifies Molina as 'extremely cheap' with a value ratio under 10, positioning it as a favorable investment within the currently undervalued healthcare insurance sector. He expresses confidence that any of the deeply discounted insurers, including Molina, will outperform the S&P 500 over the next two to three years.

“Eleance and Molina are also extremely cheap with value ratios under 10. Honestly, I believe no matter which one of those you pick in the coming years, in the next two, three years, you will beat the S&P 500.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber expresses regret over his PayPal investment, citing the CEO's resignation shortly after his purchase and a dislike for the new CEO. He finds the business model outdated and competition aggressive, making him uncomfortable holding it despite its low valuation.

“I really don't like the new CEO. It doesn't give me a good feeling, you know? It's I don't know. I'm No, no. I really have issue taking a loss, especially in a company trading at such a low valuation.” — ▶ 13:00

The YouTuber is buying PayPal, citing its $6 billion of free cash flow against a $38 billion market cap, making it appear cheap. They believe a bounce is inevitable due to a new CEO, soft guidance making it even cheaper, revenue growth, and share count drops, arguing management can cut costs and squeeze profits for years.

“6 billion of free cash flow and 38 billion of market cap. Do I need to say anything else? New CEO plus soft guidance made it even cheaper. Revenue growth share counts drops. A bounce is inevitable.” — ▶ 03:15

The YouTuber believes PayPal is a 20% plus gainer in 2026, with strong numbers and potential for a comeback for 'dead and forgotten stocks.' The stock is trading under $60 and appears to be at a major support level. The speaker personally bought it below $60, acknowledging risks but seeing value.

“PayPal is trading under $60 at the time of recording and looking at the chart, it seems like at a major support level.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber advises avoiding PayPal for long-term investment despite its low valuation and potential for short-term gains. They argue that PayPal faces intense competition with lower fees and that its business model could become obsolete due to the rise of decentralized finance and crypto. While acknowledging its current cheapness, they do not believe it has a strong moat for sustained dominance.

“My conclusion is that PayPal business has a very weak mode, a lot a lot of competition with lower fees, so its valuation should be low, as low as $70. Probably not. I don't think so. It's risky, but it's also undervalued. I can see the company bouncing to 90 or $100, but I don't believe it's a great long-term investment that will go back to all-time highs.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber suggests PayPal could be a short-term trading opportunity due to its current undervaluation. They believe the stock could bounce to $90 or $100, making it attractive for a trade, but explicitly states they are not willing to bet on its long-term dominance.

“PayPal price is attractive, and I might even trade it with a target price of $90.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber is holding Booking Holdings because he believes the initial investment thesis about the growth of the travel industry and Booking's role in it is still valid. He notes the company is cheaper now based on revenue and profit growth, despite increased risks from geopolitical events and AI uncertainty.

“I'm still holding because I think it's very cheap. However, I wouldn't recommend it to my close friends unless they want something connected to travel or something easy to understand, something that we use.” — ▶ 4:00

The YouTuber believes the recent 6% drop in Booking.com's stock due to an Italian antitrust investigation is an overreaction. He argues that any potential fine would be a small fraction of the company's free cash flow and that the underlying business remains strong. He also suggests that a potential post-earnings drop, driven by war-related tourism impacts, could present a further buying opportunity.

“A few millions in fine does not justify a 6% drop in price, so I really believe Booking.com is a better buy today than it was 1 week ago and I will keep holding my position.” — ▶ 08:00

The YouTuber is buying Booking.com as a long-term play, believing global travel will increase. They view it as part of a duopoly with a compelling valuation, and their forecaster suggests a fair value over $7,000.

“Will humans travel more or less in the future? Check the aviation passenger forecast. I think we will travel more and booking.com wins. Forecaster puts the fair value over 7,000.” — ▶ 00:45

The YouTuber holds Booking for the long run, based on the belief that human travel will increase in the future. He notes that the stock is neither extremely cheap nor expensive, indicating a long-term conviction.

“I’m holding these for the long run. Humans will travel more in the future.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber considers Booking a main conviction for the long run, stating he could potentially hold it for years as long as the company continues to deliver strong results.

“Google, Airbnb, and Booking are my main conviction for the long run. As long as they keep delivering, I could potentially hold those trees for years.” — ▶ 07:35

The YouTuber opened a small position in Booking Holdings, believing the travel industry has been over-punished by tariff fears. He argues that if Booking survived the pandemic, it can manage current tariffs.

“if Airbnb and booking survived the pandemic I think they will manage some tariffs so I opened a small position 10% of my portfolio also in booking holdings” — ▶ 4:50

The YouTuber is positive on Hims & Hers Health despite recent poor earnings, viewing it as a major disruptor in personalized medicine and telehealth. He sees strong tailwinds from trends like personalized medicine and peptides, positioning Hims as a sector leader with significant growth potential.

“There is so much tailwind for seems that I think it will grow a lot. Far from being a perfect company, but this is a company that when my friends ask, I tell okay, check it out because this might go really parabolic.” — ▶ 17:00

The YouTuber is buying Hims & Hers despite recent losses and Novo Nordisk lawsuits, believing the company is well-positioned to lead the future of online medicine and customized treatments. They highlight its extremely high risk, crazy growth potential, founder-led management, and low valuation.

“Five years from now, we will buy more medicine online. Will we want customized treatments? I believe we will. And HIMS is positioned to lead this sector. Extremely high risk, crazy growth potential, founder, low valuation.” — ▶ 02:50

The YouTuber bought Hims & Hers at $26, noting it's back to his previous entry price despite significant sales growth. He dismisses concerns about competition in weight loss drugs, arguing that the broader trend of online medicine for various conditions (sex, hair, anxiety, skin, menopause) makes the company's long-term vision and customized approach compelling.

“Five years from now, we will buy more or less medicine online. Even if we exclude weight loss, sex, air, anxiety, skin, menopause, are these problems going to disappeared?” — ▶ 6:00

The YouTuber is looking to buy Hims & Hers again, seeing the current sell-off as a potential buying opportunity. Despite concerns about a potential lawsuit from Novo Nordisk regarding GLP-1 sales and the CEO selling shares, he believes a penalty won't put Hims out of business and that the stock is currently trading below his fair value estimate of $55, making it attractive at a lower entry point.

“I'm looking for a good entry price and I would probably buy if the shares goes back to this trend line or lower.” — ▶ 12:40

The YouTuber sold Hims & Hers after it reached his previously calculated fair value of $49 and continued to climb to $62-$63, locking in a 148% gain. He believes the stock is no longer a bargain and, despite strong momentum and future growth projections, it remains a high-risk bet that has met his profit-taking target.

“The stock it's very very volatile. It has a crazy good momentum right now, but I feel it's not a bargain anymore. It's not like one month ago. So I still see the company like a very high risk bet. So I decided to cash in my winnings at 6263.” — ▶ 04:40

The YouTuber sees Him & Hers as a very good deal at $25, despite not typically investing in healthcare. He believes it has multi-bagger potential if it successfully navigates regulations and potential lawsuits.

“buying a $25 seems a very, very good deal. It's risky, but if they successfully navigate through regulations and maybe lawsuits, I believe it has the potential to be a multi-bagger.” — ▶ 5:20

The analyst identifies Hims as a high-risk, high-reward play, noting it appears undervalued based on his 'value ratio' metric. However, he ultimately advises against investment due to significant unquantified risks, including regulatory changes in telehealth, the company's undisclosed churn rate for its subscription model, and high customer acquisition costs that may not be sustainable if churn is high. He also expresses personal ethical concerns about investing in the healthcare sector.

“If you can spare 10 minutes of your time to watch this video and understand every risk factor, stay away and don't invest at all.” — ▶ 00:25

Meta is viewed as undervalued, with some YouTubers happily buying shares around $700. The company is doubling down on building infrastructure for AI, which is expected to increase its competitive advantage and drive future growth and stock price appreciation.

“I objectively do still think that the stock is looking undervalued and if the share price remains around here then it is a stock that I will continue buying and building out my position in this price range.” — ▶ 7:50

The video's host expresses a personal desire for Meta to keep crashing, as they believe it is the cheapest among the Magnificent 7 and would like to buy more.

“I'm kind of hoping meta would keep crashing. I'm jinxing it because I would really like to buy and I think it's the cheapest among the Magnificent 7.” — ▶ 10:30

The YouTuber views Meta as a great company, highlighting Mark Zuckerberg's effective leadership as proven by earnings. They indicate they would add more Meta to their portfolio if the stock drops below the $600 mark, noting it has the lowest P/E among the Magnificent Seven.

“So, we see it get below that $600 mark, I'll definitely be adding a lot more meta to my portfolio.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber is interested in buying Meta if its stock price continues to fall. He views it as currently trading at 'very interesting prices' and wants to have cash available to capitalize on a potential further correction.

“Companies like Meta Amazon Salesforce, Adobe are already trading at very interesting prices. If they keep crashing, I want to have the cash ready to buy.” — ▶ 5:20

The YouTuber suggests Meta as a potential 'long' position due to its involvement in AR glasses, which are identified as an almost breaking out technology. The thesis is that AR glasses could disrupt many industries, including smartphones, aligning with the creative destruction theory.

“Long should be meta, maybe unity.” — ▶ 10:00

The YouTuber's 'value ratio' framework identifies Meta as the best deal among the Magnificent 7, with a ratio significantly below the market median and the 10-year Treasury yield benchmark. This suggests it is undervalued based on its projected owner's earnings and risk assessment.

“The best deal currently is meta followed very closely by the only Mac 7 I own in my portfolio, Google.” — ▶ 7:00

Alphabet (Google) is presented as a high-quality business with accelerating growth and margin expansion across its diverse segments, including search, YouTube, and Google Cloud. Billions of people interact with its products daily, making it a strong long-term investment.

“Acceleration in growth margin expansion It's exactly what you want to see. And if we can continue to see this, well then I think yeah, the party continues. This is one of the highest quality businesses in the world.” — ▶ 3:30

The YouTuber believes Alphabet still has a great story ahead, with continued growth in YouTube, Waymo, Gemini, and Google Cloud. Despite being more expensive than in the past year, its dominance and growth potential justify its valuation, especially at a high 20s P/E ratio.

“We see a company here that still has a great story ahead. And that's the reason that I refuse to sell it, especially at a high 20s PE ratio.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber sold Alphabet (Google) due to valuation concerns, noting its forward P/E ratio has risen to nearly 20, making it less attractive compared to other Magnificent 7 stocks. He also cited rising positive sentiment and hype around Google's AI developments, which he views as a contrarian sell signal. Finally, he needed capital to invest in other opportunities like Novo Nordisk and to maintain liquidity for potential market corrections.

“So, why did I sell now? Reason number one, valuation. Let's check my value chart. It's an improved forward P ratio. The lower the number, the cheaper the company. Alphabet for a very long time was trading around this area. A multiple of 11, 12 was really cheap.” — ▶ 3:00

The YouTuber holds Google as his largest position and believes it is still a bit undervalued, with a target price of $300. He acknowledges concerns about AI impacting search but highlights Google's advanced AI capabilities and long-term investment in capex for AI. He notes its stable operating margins and considers it a safe company, though with slightly more uncertainty than Amazon regarding future search monetization.

“Google, let's be fair, it's also an incredible company. In my opinion, is still a bit undervalued. As I say in this video, I have a target price of $300.” — ▶ 3:00

The YouTuber argues that Google (Alphabet) is significantly undervalued despite its high share price, based on three valuation methods. A sum-of-the-parts analysis values its divisions like YouTube, DeepMind, Waymo, Google Cloud, and Search at a combined $3.7 trillion. A discounted cash flow model suggests a price of $450 by 2030, and the YouTuber's proprietary 'value ratio' method indicates a fair value over $300, implying a 50% upside from current levels.

“Alphabet at $200 is a big buy. I will prove it.” — ▶ 01:00

The YouTuber added to his Google position, considering it a 'safer bet' due to its strong business segments like YouTube, Gemini, Waymo, and Cloud, which generate significant profits. He views it as a long-term conviction holding.

“I bought 50 shares more of Google at 169. Why Google? Five words. YouTube. Gemini, Whimo, Cloud, Big Profits.” — ▶ 07:00

The YouTuber bought Google (Alphabet) shares, viewing it as significantly undervalued compared to its fair value of $230, trading at 18 times P/E and growing twice as fast as Apple. He also notes its diverse portfolio of assets like Waymo, YouTube, and Google Search.

“I have a fair value of $230. Currently, it trades 30% below that peak, but I believe it will go back to all-time high. So, I sold my Celsius position and I bought 200 shares of Google, aiming to ride it at least at 230 or even higher.” — ▶ 6:00

The YouTuber considers Google a compelling buy at its current price of $170, believing it to be 50% undervalued compared to his fair value of $250. He acknowledges concerns about AI impacting search revenue but emphasizes Google's other strong businesses like YouTube and the longer-than-expected timeline for AI disruption.

“Google is now trading at $170 I haven't full disclosure I haven't um open a position yet otherwise I would have added to my portfolio I will make a video if I open a position on Google but I think Google now it's yeah it went there like I have a fair value of $250 and now the shares are like $170 is 50% uh undervalue so they have to gain 50% to just arrive to their fair value.” — ▶ 13:30

The YouTuber believes Google (Alphabet) is currently undervalued by 37% based on his proprietary 'value ratio' analysis, which considers adjusted earnings, growth prospects, and risk. He estimates real earnings at $80 billion and projects 11% revenue growth. He would buy the stock if it drops to $168, which represents a 50% upside from his fair value estimate.

“I would buy at $168 which may or may not happen but today 185 isn't expensive it is an investment to consider.” — ▶ 8:00

Nvidia is highlighted as the strongest name in the Magnificent 7, being the core engine of the AI revolution with its semiconductors. The company shows stunning overall growth, with continuous growth expected in the coming quarters and a significant upside potential.

“Nvidia is the strongest name in this entire group by every structured measure we applied. Semiconductors are my primary engine.” — ▶ 6:00

The YouTuber suggests Nvidia should be on a buy list if not already in a portfolio, as it is expected to maintain the 'lion's share' of its market. However, the speaker personally prefers contrarian plays over buying the largest company in the world.

“I think Nvidia needs to be on your list of stocks to buy if it isn't already in your portfolio” — ▶ Guarda clip

Amazon is considered a top pick for 2026 due to its growth combined with a currently cheap valuation. The company is investing heavily in AI and data centers, building infrastructure that deepens its competitive moat, and AWS is showing expanding margins and growing revenues.

“I think Amazon's going to crush the S&P 500 returns over the next 5 years, but that's because the growth with the now cheap valuation.” — ▶ 7:20

The YouTuber praises Amazon's acquisition of Kiva and its extensive use of operational robots, which outnumber the rest of the nation. This robotic advantage, combined with a prediction to double retail revenue by 2033 without increasing employees, suggests significant margin expansion. While not cheap, it looks reasonable.

“and their prediction that they can double their retail revenue by 2033 or 32 without any increase in employees just says to me that is going to register margin expansion in some just as Alphabet looked cheap to me last here or reasonable I should say not cheap Amazon doesn't look cheap but it looks reasonable” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber is interested in buying Amazon if its stock price continues to fall. He views it as currently trading at 'very interesting prices' and wants to have cash available to capitalize on a potential further correction.

“Companies like Meta Amazon Salesforce, Adobe are already trading at very interesting prices. If they keep crashing, I want to have the cash ready to buy.” — ▶ 5:20

The YouTuber believes Amazon is cheaper than it looks, despite a higher forward P/E than Google, due to its significant revenue growth (especially AWS) and expanding margins. He argues Amazon deserves to be at all-time highs and will benefit from AI through cost cutting and operational efficiency, which could significantly boost profits given its large revenue base. He considers Amazon a slightly safer investment than Google.

“Amazon deserves to be at all-time high, not just a bit higher than 2020.” — ▶ 2:30

The YouTuber expresses high conviction in Duolingo, stating it's his main conviction and over 20% of his portfolio. He believes the company is undervalued, with his fair value estimate at $200, and expects it to go higher. He also notes the high short interest, suggesting potential for a short squeeze.

“My fair value is currently $200, but I think Dolingo will go higher. It's my main conviction right now. It's over 20% of my portfolio and I'm going to buy more.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber sold Oscar Health because they were not fully confident in the company. They admitted to not understanding the US political landscape in the healthcare sector well enough to feel comfortable holding the investment.

“I realized I was not totally confident in Hoscar health. I do not understand the US political game on deck sector well enough to sleep peacefully and relax. So I sold with a tiny 4% profit.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber is considering exiting Oscar Health after the next bounce, despite its extremely low valuation. They acknowledge the stock is very risky and volatile, and while recent earnings were poor, the guidance was unexpectedly strong, leading them to believe a bounce is possible.

“They just reported earnings and in my opinion they were horrible, horrible, huge miss, but great, incredible guidance. Almost too good to be true, honestly. So I might exit after the next bounce to buy more of my eye convictions cash.” — ▶ 02:15

The YouTuber holds Oscar as part of his insurance exposure, viewing it as a contrarian play in a currently 'hated' sector. He maintains a holding position.

“A contrarian investor like me needs some exposure to hated insurance stocks right now.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber invested in Oscar Health, citing its low valuation at 5.5 times a 5-year forward earning power, similar to Molina. He acknowledges it's a high-risk bet due to its reliance on the Obamacare marketplace and current uncertainty, but anticipates a bounce back once there is more clarity in the healthcare sector.

“Last week I bought 15,000 of each. 1,150 shares of Oscar at 1320.” — ▶ 5:00

The YouTuber sold Oscar Health stock after a 62% gain in two months, citing technical resistance on the chart, a desire to avoid greed, recession fears leading to trimming speculative positions, and concerns about shareholder dilution from a new convertible notes offering. He believes the stock is no longer as cheap as it was.

“Here are four reason why I decided to sell. Reason number one, the chart. I'm not chart expert, but this is definitely an area of resistance for Oscar.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber considers Oscar Health a speculative bet and is planning to sell it soon as it is already up almost 50% in two months. He states he would not recommend buying it now due to its significant recent appreciation, implying it's no longer undervalued.

“Oscar for example, it's almost 50% up already in about two months. So I might sell it soon.” — ▶ 10:20

The YouTuber bought Oscar Health, despite it being fundamentally more expensive than peers, because he believes it offers the best 'trade' due to its high volatility and massive positive momentum, evidenced by search and trading volume. He aims for a quick double, expecting it to outperform other healthcare insurers in the short term.

“I bought 1,500 shares at 1350 right when it touched this trend line. I'm already up a bit, but the stock is so volatile that everything could change tomorrow. I'm going to hold for a while and see if I can get that quick double.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber is buying Airbnb, viewing it as part of a duopoly with Booking.com and benefiting from increased global travel demand. They note low double-digit growth guidance for 2026 and consider it a solid, stable business.

“Low doubledigit growth for 2026 guidance. Solid stable driven by an increase in global travel demand.” — ▶ 01:55

The YouTuber holds Airbnb for the long run, based on the belief that human travel will increase in the future. He notes that the stock is neither extremely cheap nor expensive, indicating a long-term conviction.

“I’m holding these for the long run. Humans will travel more in the future.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber considers Airbnb a main conviction for the long run, stating he could potentially hold it for years as long as the company continues to deliver strong results.

“Google, Airbnb, and Booking are my main conviction for the long run. As long as they keep delivering, I could potentially hold those trees for years.” — ▶ 07:35

The YouTuber argues that Airbnb, despite a recent 30% crash, presents a strong buying opportunity. He uses his 'value ratio' indicator, which considers strong gross margins (over 80%), 25% owner's earnings, and a projected 10% CAGR for the next five years. He acknowledges risks like regulation and competition but believes the company's strong balance sheet, cash flow, and management mitigate these concerns, making it a relatively safe bet at its current price.

“All consider Airbnb is quite cheap right now. I believe my assumption are conservative. Airbnb will likely go back to all-time highs during the next 5 years, giving me above average market returns. Therefore, I bought 250 shares at $120.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber sees significant long-term growth potential for Airbnb, noting it's generating free cash flow and trading below its IPO price despite doubled revenue and increased nights booked. He believes the travel industry is oversold due to tariff fears and that Airbnb can withstand a recession.

“I still believe Airbnb potential growth it's quite big. It's already generating free cash flow. It's trading below its IPO price despite revenue more than double.” — ▶ 4:00

The YouTuber states that Uber's core business is brilliant, with incredible growth and an absurdly cheap valuation, independent of autonomous vehicle concerns. Many YouTubers are bullish on Uber for 2026.

“All in all, I think there's no denying that the core business is simply brilliant, independent of the AV fears. The growth profile is absolutely incredible. The valuation is absurdly cheap.” — ▶ Guarda clip

Arya Radnia argues that Uber is a strong buy due to its incredible growth profile, with revenue projected to grow at a 15% CAGR over the next five years, driven by audience growth and increased trip frequency. He believes operating margins will expand to 15% due to operating leverage and a growing mix of higher-margin revenues from Uber One and advertising. He also contends that Uber's data moat, network effects, and ability to integrate autonomous vehicle (AV) partners will allow it to thrive despite AV risks and regulatory challenges, making it an 'absurdly cheap' stock.

“Ultimately, the value that Uber provides to the network as well is incredible. As I highlighted time and time again, there's that utilization question which Uber outright solves. There's the regulatory piece across 10,000 cities. And so, I think there's a lot more barriers to entry than people give Uber credit for.” — ▶ 20:00

The YouTuber highlights Vertiv's position as the 'gold standard' in the data center industry. The total addressable market for data centers is expected to grow to $70-90 billion by 2030, significantly larger than Vertiv's current $9 billion revenue, suggesting a 3 to 4x increase in operating income in the coming years.

“the TAM the total addressable market by 2030 is expected to be somewhere in the vicinity of 70 to90 billion dollar per year currently VR is making about 9 billion per year that increase in the TAM will certainly spill over into VR RT being the gold standard of the industry.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber highlights Salesforce's cost discipline, AI monetization without customer acquisition costs, and strong free cash flow of $12.9 billion. It trades at a 5.5x forward sales multiple and is down 29% in the last year, making it a good deal. The company also benefits from a massive moat due to the difficulty of switching CRM systems.

“Salesforce trades at 2020 levels and has a massive moat because switching CRM it's a pain in the ass no company wants.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber is interested in buying Salesforce if its stock price continues to fall. He views it as currently trading at 'very interesting prices' and wants to have cash available to capitalize on a potential further correction.

“Companies like Meta Amazon Salesforce, Adobe are already trading at very interesting prices. If they keep crashing, I want to have the cash ready to buy.” — ▶ 5:20

The YouTuber highlights Netflix's unmatched subscriber scale, which provides a unit economic advantage and makes other streaming services seem more expensive in comparison. This dominance leads to continued growth and a decreasing price per content, increasing its value proposition.

“The subscriber scale is just simply unmatched. They won the game. They are not only the leader leader in subscribers, but this gives them a unit economic advantage that no one else can possibly compete with.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber notes that Shift4 Payments' management expects to deliver $1 billion in free cash flow by the end of 2027. With a $7 billion market cap, this valuation suggests significant upside potential, with a possibility of 100% plus returns in the next year.

“But given the valuation, it also wouldn't surprise me if it's up 100% plus this next year. And so this is a payments company where management saying, "We think we can deliver a billion dollars of free cash flow by the end of 2027."” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber argues that Novo Nordisk is significantly undervalued, trading at half the market's price-to-five-years-forward-earning-power ratio compared to its fair value. He believes market expectations for growth are too low, especially with the upcoming launch of an effective GLP-1 pill, and that current negative market sentiment presents a contrarian buying opportunity in a defensive sector.

“I'm convinced that right now no's value is at least $80 a share. The price is just 48. So as soon as the mood changes, price will go up and I will make $32 on every share.” — ▶ 1:20

The YouTuber argues that Deckers Brands (DECK) is significantly undervalued, trading at roughly half the price of companies like Google or Amazon based on a five-year forward earnings power metric. Despite acknowledging risks like a weaker economic moat compared to tech giants and potential impacts from tariffs and a soft consumer outlook, he believes the current 65% drop from its high suggests it's near a bottom. He is seriously considering opening a position.

“Decerts is trading at unreasonably low levels and I'm seriously considering opening a position with a target price of at least $125 but probably higher.” — ▶ 6:00

The analyst considers Deckers to be undervalued, noting its stability, diversification, and better management compared to other footwear brands. While its growth is expected to slow, it presents a less risky investment opportunity than Crocs.

“Decerts instead it's more stable less risky more diversified and better management in my opinion.” — ▶ 08:00

The YouTuber suggests Deckers Outdoor as a compelling opportunity, noting it's down 40% from its all-time high while still increasing revenue year after year. He encourages further research into the company.

“Another cheap shoe company to maybe maybe the most compelling of all is Deckers Outdoor they are actually down 40% from all time high, increasing Revenue, compounding year after years they're very successful.” — ▶ 11:00

The YouTuber holds Google in their portfolio, citing its involvement in AlphaFold, DeepMind, and Waymo as reasons for investment. These are presented as disruptive technologies aligning with the creative destruction theory. A previous price target of $300 was mentioned.

“Personally, I only have Google in my portfolio for Alphafold, Deep Mind, Whimo, and some months ago, I gave a target price of $300.” — ▶ 10:50

Google is identified as a compelling buy, ranking second only to Meta in the YouTuber's 'value ratio' analysis. Its ratio is well below the market median and the 10-year Treasury yield, indicating it is undervalued based on its earnings potential and risk profile.

“The best deal currently is meta followed very closely by the only Mac 7 I own in my portfolio, Google.” — ▶ 7:00

The YouTuber recently bought Google, making it a significant portion of his portfolio. He implies it's a good buy because the market is currently panicking due to tariffs, creating a good entry point.

“I sold Celsius on April 1st and used that money to buy into Google, which now makes up around 20% of my portfolio.” — ▶ 3:00

The YouTuber identifies humanoid robots as an emerging technology and notes that Tesla is currently the only publicly traded company in this space. This makes Tesla a potential 'long' candidate based on the creative destruction framework.

“Only Tesla is publicly traded at the moment.” — ▶ 10:09

Tesla is identified as clearly overvalued with a value ratio of almost 60, significantly higher than its peers and benchmarks. The YouTuber's analysis suggests its current price does not reflect its earnings potential and higher risk profile, despite potential high growth assumptions.

“The clearly overvalued one appears to be Tesla at almost 60.” — ▶ 7:38

The YouTuber believes Tesla is very overpriced, with a value ratio of 52, which is double the market median. This assessment holds even after accounting for potential margin expansion and 25% growth, suggesting the current valuation is not justified by its fundamentals.

“Tesla on the other end is very overpriced at 52 is double the market even considering margin expansion and 25% growth Elon no thanks” — ▶ 5:45

The YouTuber advises avoiding Tesla due to its high valuation (PE over 100) which already prices in significant future growth and perfection. While acknowledging positive catalysts like CyberTrucks, CyberCab, self-driving, and Optimus, he notes rising competition, margin pressure, and declining sales in the last quarter.

“Despite all this Tesla stock remain a c 65% gain last year massive fomo and mask personality makes it irresistible for many Do you own it” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber suggests Unity as a potential 'long' position, alongside Meta, due to its connection to AR glasses technology. This aligns with the creative destruction theory, where new innovations like AR glasses are expected to disrupt existing markets.

“Long should be meta, maybe unity.” — ▶ 10:00

The YouTuber mentions QuantumScape in the context of solid-state batteries, noting its significant price movement and a contract with Volkswagen. While not explicitly a buy or sell, it's highlighted as a company to watch in a disruptive technology space.

“QuantumCape already bounced from $350 to $16 this year after closing its first big contract with Volkswagen in healthcare.” — ▶ 10:18

The YouTuber previously suggested ASML as an interesting European company that he believes is still very cheap despite being up about 10%. He implies it remains undervalued and a good buying opportunity.

“Last month, I suggested two European companies I believe are very interesting. Noisk and ASML. They're both up already a little bit, maybe 10%, but are still very cheap in my opinion.” — ▶ 12:20

The YouTuber recommends ASML, citing its strong fundamentals (revenue and income up) despite a 40% share price drop from highs. He attributes the decline to exaggerated geopolitical fears, arguing that ASML's monopoly in lithography machines and essential role in an AI-driven world make demand resilient. His valuation suggests a fair price over $1,000.

“I really don't see the demand for their litography machines going to zero in a world that's being revolutionized by AI.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber recommends healthcare insurance companies, specifically Centene, as being very cheap and undervalued. He suggests them as a good opportunity for those with patience, having previously bought Oscar Health for a quicker bounce but now seeing Centene as a better current value.

“Instead, Saint Centine and Molina are still very, very cheap in my opinion, very undervalued.” — ▶ 13:00

The YouTuber is considering adding Centene to his portfolio, believing the entire healthcare insurance sector is undervalued. He notes that Centene trades at a lower forward P/E ratio (13) compared to UnitedHealth (18), which was recently bought by Berkshire Hathaway, suggesting it offers a better value proposition within the sector.

“I'm considering adding some centine or molina.” — ▶ 9:40

The YouTuber identifies Centene as the cheapest stock in the healthcare insurance sector based on his 'value ratio' formula, noting its price is the same as 10 years ago while revenues have grown 800% and its price-to-sales ratio is under 0.1. He believes it is wrongly priced and could reach $100 if fully valued, making it a strong long-term investment.

“But just looking at the formula and the pure numbers, the cheapest is sentin CNC. It's trading at $28. The same price it was 10 years ago. while its revenues has grown 800%. As a price to sell ratio under 0.1 is just crazy cheap.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber is currently holding Abercrombie at a loss and is considering selling it to reallocate funds to more compelling opportunities like Lululemon. He states he might take the loss and move on, indicating a bearish stance on its future potential compared to other stocks.

“Abberrombi as well. I I don't like to lose money, but I might take this loss and be over with it because I do see more potential compelling opportunity than AM in the current market.” — ▶ 10:30

The YouTuber believes Abercrombie & Fitch is deeply undervalued, trading at a P/E of around 8 while making over $10 per share in profit. Despite strong recent earnings and growth, he feels overexposed to a fashion company due to the lack of durable moats in the sector. He will continue to hold, expecting the price to eventually reflect its value.

“This company is extremely cheap compared to the rest of the market and with time the price should move higher and realign.” — ▶ 01:30

The YouTuber holds a large position in Abercrombie & Fitch, believing it is deeply undervalued based on his value ratio calculation, despite being down due to Vietnam tariffs. He plans to monitor earnings for fundamental changes.

“my value ratio calculation tells Abra Crombi is deeply deeply undervalued currently.” — ▶ 3:25

The YouTuber is holding Abercrombie and Fitch despite significant recent losses, believing it is deeply undervalued with a current P/E ratio of around 8 and a value ratio of 7.89. He notes the company has low debt, $900 million in cash, and a buyback plan, expecting the market to eventually recognize its true value despite weak guidance.

“I refuse to sell a stock with a sub 10 value ratio I'm convinced that if I do sell it will pop to 50 like this and I will feel even more stupid more foolish so I'm waiting.” — ▶ 7:00

The analyst identifies Crocs as significantly undervalued with a low price-to-earnings potential compared to the S&P 500 median. Despite slower growth and higher risk due to debt, its current valuation makes it a compelling turnaround play with high potential gains.

“Crocs seems to be the best deal by far. Remember this chart is the other way around. Since it's a ratio, the smaller the column, the better the deal. Crocs as the lead followed by Decards.” — ▶ 05:00

The YouTuber notes that Crocs appears cheap based on valuation ratios but is not buying yet due to its high volatility and potential for further declines. He is watching it carefully.

“I mean is a strange is a very volatile stock so it can keep going down so I'm not buying yet but I'm watching it care carefully because the valuation, the value ratio, say it's very cheap.” — ▶ 10:00

The analyst considers Wolverine extremely overvalued and too risky for investment. They highlight its high value ratio, low growth, and the additional risk posed by its debt obligations, making it an unattractive option.

“Wolverine value ratio of 80. Extremely overvalue. It goes off the chart. I wouldn't invest in this. It's too risky. Not a great PE. Low growth. Honestly, I'm a gambler and I would be scared as a shareholder.” — ▶ 07:00

The analyst expresses a desire to buy Birkenstock due to its strong operating margins and growth, but currently considers it to be in the fair value range. They are waiting for a deeper value entry point before initiating a position.

“Beerentock is the company I love. It's almost in cheap territory. I want to buy it, but I'm waiting for deep value. Currently, it's a pass for me.” — ▶ 07:35

The analyst views On Running as undervalued and suitable for growth investors, highlighting its rapid growth (35% in the last 12 months) and strong future potential. However, they caution that its performance is highly dependent on continued growth.

“on running instead is for growth investors as long as they keep growing it will do great but if growth slow down yeah be careful because it might crash.” — ▶ 08:05

The analyst states that Nike is trading in the middle of the fair value range and is not considered a huge bargain despite a recent drop. While it's a safe bet due to its strong brand and market leadership, it's not expected to outperform the market.

“Nike is the leader in the space is trading in the middle of the fair value range. I don't think is a huge bargain even after the drop, but if you believe in the company, it's okay to hold a position.” — ▶ 07:20

The YouTuber sold Yeti due to a re-evaluation of its competitive moat, or lack thereof, which significantly lowered his fair value estimate from $55 to $40 per share. Despite initial positive signs like debt reduction and share buybacks, the recent earnings miss and flat guidance, combined with the absence of a strong moat, made the stock no longer a compelling value play with sufficient margin of safety.

“After reevaluating their lack of competitive advantage, I had to adjust the risk score to 54. Do you know what it did to my valuation? It dropped the fair value to just $40 per share.” — ▶ 7:00

The YouTuber holds Yeti as a speculative bet, acknowledging it's currently in the red. He expects the price to go up as it's a strong business generating plenty of free cash flow compared to its price, despite not having the strong dominance of his core holdings.

“They're both strong businesses. They're both generating plenty of free cash flow especially compared to the price. So I expect the price to go up hopefully soon.” — ▶ 08:15

The YouTuber bought Yeti Holdings, citing strong financials, healthy cash flow, share buybacks, and a reasonable valuation at 14 times earnings. He believes it remains fundamentally strong despite tariff fears and will adapt.

“strong financials, healthy cash flow, buying back shares, and reasonably priced at 14 times earnings.” — ▶ 6:50

The YouTuber is holding his Ethereum position, applying a contrarian strategy to crypto where traditional valuation metrics are absent. He buys when sentiment is depressed and sells when it's euphoric. Currently, he perceives the market as being 'somewhere in the middle' after being rejected from its all-time high, indicating it's not yet time to sell, and he anticipates new all-time highs.

“Right now, we are somewhere in the middle. There is excitement, but we are not at peak FOMO. So, for now, I'm holding my position and waiting patiently for the market to go crazy.” — ▶ 16:30

Adriconomics states that Figma's fair value is around $12 billion, corresponding to a share price of $20, based on assumptions of 26% operating margins, 30% CAGR for five years, and a medium-low risk score. He plans to open a position only if post-IPO volatility pushes the price below $20, as the IPO is priced higher and initial trading is expected to be volatile.

“My plan is simple. I will not be participating in the IPO nor I will buy if the share price is $3540. However, I will be ready to open a position if the post IPO volatility pushes prices under $20.” — ▶ 03:40

The YouTuber states that Elevance is 'extremely cheap' with a value ratio under 10, suggesting it is a good investment within the beaten-down healthcare insurance sector. He believes that picking any of the cheap insurers, including Elevance, will beat the S&P 500 in the next two to three years.

“Eleance and Molina are also extremely cheap with value ratios under 10. Honestly, I believe no matter which one of those you pick in the coming years, in the next two, three years, you will beat the S&P 500.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber suggests that United Healthcare is not expensive below $300 and long-term investors would likely profit. However, he prefers other options due to UNH's internal issues, including management turnover and a Department of Justice investigation, which add to its risk profile.

“Under $300, it's not expensive. I believe long-term investor will be fine and profit. But I like it less than the others because on top of the sector issues, they have their own internal problems, the management turnover and the DOJ investigations.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber is looking into United Health after a significant 60% drop, noting poor results, suspended guidance, and CEO departure. However, he expresses hesitation to buy, stating he generally dislikes large healthcare companies and is currently cautious due to macro instability and tariffs, suggesting he's unlikely to invest despite the potential value.

“I don't like this kind of huge healthcare companies. I don't think I will buy into United Health, but I'm looking into it. I want to understand if there is value.” — ▶ 08:40

Adriconomics is buying SMTI, a micro-cap healthcare company focused on wound care, because his custom 'value ratio' indicator shows it is incredibly cheap, similar to Google. He highlights strong revenue growth (34% last year) and high gross margins (85-90%), expecting valuation to expand as the company approaches profitability. Despite risks like debt and share dilution, he notes the CEO's significant ownership and a new product launch as mitigators.

“I just bought 750 shares for over $20,000. It's a completely unknown ticker you probably never heard. It's a micro cap with a multi-bagger potential that it's currently trading at half its fair value.” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber believes Robinhood is currently overvalued, with his valuation model suggesting a fair price of $50 per share compared to its current trading price over $80. Despite acknowledging strong growth and potential future catalysts like S&P 500 inclusion, he advises against buying due to the high valuation and inherent risks like competition and lack of a strong moat.

“Even with these generous numbers, the value ratio is high 39, which give us a fair price around $50 per share. With the stock trading over $80, I'm not buying and I wouldn't recommend it or suggest it to any of my friend either.” — ▶ 7:00

The YouTuber sold Logitech due to flat revenue in the latest earnings report, coupled with increased expenses, particularly marketing and administrative costs (manager pay). This raised concerns about management's decisions and the company's financial discipline, especially given his already low conviction in the stock and a 20% gain since purchase.

“The things that really piss me off is that flat revenue revenue but all the expenses went up especially marketing expenses okay this is possible I mean I don't like it but possible but also like the managers pay themsel more so more administration and general expenses so the managers pay themsel more when the revenue is flat and that I really don't like this is something pissed me off.” — ▶ 02:00

The YouTuber holds Logitech, stating he loves their products and believes it is undervalued, trading around $70 with his fair value estimate at $120. He expects it to adapt to tariff challenges in the long run.

“Trading around $70 with my fair value around $120. I use the brand. I couldn't resist.” — ▶ 6:30

Apple appears more expensive compared to other Magnificent 7 stocks due to its projected low growth rate of only 5% over five years. While its investor price to future earnings ratio is aligned with peers, its lower growth makes it a less attractive option in the YouTuber's valuation framework.

“However, Apple with little grow seems more expensive.” — ▶ 5:45

The YouTuber advises avoiding Estee Lauder due to its recent negative profit margins, shrinking growth since 2022, and substantial $10 billion debt. He views the company as struggling to adapt to modern marketing and facing significant restructuring challenges, leading to a higher risk score compared to ELF Beauty.

“Now the combination of losing money, no growth, 10 billion in depth, it's very very very concerning for me. Therefore, while I gave elf beauty a medium risk of 41 out of 100, I believe a stale loader is way riskier and it deserve a score of 72 out of 100.” — ▶ 4:50

The analyst calculates a fair price of $87 for Reddit, significantly below its current trading price of $115. While acknowledging its growth potential and unique platform, he highlights risks such as share-based compensation leading to dilution and heavy dependence on Google for traffic. He would personally consider buying only if the price dropped to $60-$70.

“The current price of $115 gives a value ratio of 32 and a fair price of $87. Personally, I would buy around $60 $70, but unless the recession hits, we probably won't see that again.” — ▶ 04:00

The YouTuber is holding his Celsius position, acknowledging recent volatility but maintaining a long-term thesis. He views the Alani Nu acquisition as a positive, value-creating deal at a good price, and is encouraged by international expansion. However, he notes concerns about declining sales, market share loss (though to Alani Nu), and increased risk due to the acquisition not being finalized and potential lack of a strong moat.

“I'm not a trader, I don't care, I don't care about this kind of movements, I just have a thesis that plays in the long run. It will take place in the next year or a couple of years, and yes I just thinks in the long run they will create value and may share will go up.” — ▶ 3:50

The YouTuber expresses a preference for Celsius, viewing it as an undervalued company. He notes that Celsius is currently trading at 2021 prices despite having four times more revenue, suggesting a significant discount compared to its growth. He contrasts this with Palantir's high valuation.

“anyway I would rather bet on undervalue companies like celsius if I'm wrong at least I'm not paying 88 times Revenue right now celsus is selling at 2021 prices with four times more Revenue” — ▶ 7:30

The YouTuber identifies Ulta Beauty as a very cheap company, noting its 37% drop from highs, $17 billion market cap, and $1 billion in free cash flow used for share buybacks. He acknowledges a red flag regarding Warren Buffett's quick exit but believes the valuation makes it worth researching as a potential pick.

“Anyway, under valuation and under my value ratio standpoint this is cheap, it's worth researching, and I think it could be a good pick.” — ▶ 2:00

The YouTuber identifies Sketchers as a cheap stock with a low valuation ratio and P/E, despite being down 20%. He highlights its consistent 10% year-over-year revenue growth over the past decade, acknowledging the competitive nature of the shoe business.

“Another one that is very cheap still in the shoe maker business is Sketchers they don't trade at such a high valuation they are down like 20% but if you see like the 10 year Revenue Trend it's like they keep compounding Revenue at like 10% year-over year a value ratio very low and a price to earning ratio quite low.” — ▶ 10:20

The YouTuber sees Shutterstock as a very risky but potentially very cheap play, having been 'destroyed' by AI. He believes a small rebound, perhaps if AI growth slows, could lead to a 50% gain in six months, despite acknowledging a clear long-term downtrend.

“I think I feel like it's a very very risky play but I also feel it's very very cheap so it's something of like we just need a little bit of mood shift like for example if artificial intelligence starts slowing down or start like I don't know whatever people call out to the bubble of artificial intelligence and something happen I feel like this company will rebound big time.” — ▶ 12:20

The YouTuber believes AMD is currently fairly priced according to his 'value ratio' system, which considers earnings, growth, and risk. He notes that while AMD is a strong company with potential for margin expansion and growth, these are not guaranteed, and the stock is not a bargain at its current valuation. He would not buy it at this price.

“I am not seeing a huge bargain here it's a good company sure but it's already in the top 50 US Company by market cap and it's not even the sector leader I am not buying” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber argues that Palantir is insanely overpriced, with a value ratio of 80% overvalued compared to the market median and an 88 price-to-sales ratio. He highlights that insiders, including the CEO, are selling shares, suggesting they do not believe the company is undervalued. He advises against buying at current prices due to the risk of significant losses.

“but the stock that makes me nauseous is Palante here a 40% jump last week alone it's above any fundamental logic it's insanely overpriced” — ▶ 6:00

The YouTuber suggests avoiding Palantir despite its strong growth and AI potential, citing its extremely high valuation (PE almost 400) which indicates bubble territory. He also points to significant insider selling, including by the CEO, as a negative signal for investors.

“Palantir is undeniably a great company with Incredible growth and even more growth potential but in 2025 you are not early to the game currently it's trading at almost 400 PE and we are clearly in bubble territory” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber strongly advises avoiding Trump Media and Technology Group, calling it an 'ultimate gamble' completely detached from reality. He points out its $7 billion market cap with almost no revenue ($4 million), resulting in an absurd price-to-sales ratio of 2,000. The company's valuation is seen as a pure bet on Trump's presidency and potential unfair advantages, rather than fundamental business performance.

“The company currently trade at around 7 billion market cap yet it generate almost no Revenue 4 million to be exact putting its price to sell ratio around 2,000 almost no one used through social for their 7 billion valuation to make sense they would need to gain $1100 every time someone visits their website it's like Pure Fantasy” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber advises caution with MicroStrategy, describing it as a highly leveraged and volatile pure play on Bitcoin. While it offers amplified gains when Bitcoin rises, he warns that a decline in Bitcoin's price could lead to an even harder crash for MicroStrategy, especially in the post-halving year where historical patterns suggest caution.

“The point is that micro strategy doesn't just hold and buy Bitcoin that extremely leveraged to buy Bitcoin it's like if you would go to the bank and say sorry could I have 200k I want to buy a couple of Bitcoin don't worry everything will be fine yes it's it's a dent play as long as Bitcoin goes up everything is fine but if bitcoin price start going down I mean the whole house of cards could come crashing down” — ▶ Guarda clip

The YouTuber recommends avoiding Rigetti Computing, despite its potential in quantum computing and recent partnerships. He highlights that the technology is still years away from commercial viability and the company's valuation (over 500 times sales with only $11 million in revenue) is extremely speculative and detached from current fundamentals.

“Rigetti now trades at over 5 billion or $5,000 million and in the last 12 months it had a revenue of just 11 million not profit Revenue they trade that over 500 times their sales” — ▶ Guarda clip