Joseph Carlson: análisis de acciones y recomendaciones

The YouTuber supports Google's rumored equity raise through shareholder dilution, despite holding the stock. He believes it's a good strategy for Google due to its higher valuation (30x forward P/E), which makes the dilution less impactful compared to Meta. He also notes that Google has a more established track record of decent returns on capital, making investors less concerned.

“I believe in the case of Google, this delusion is a good thing.” — ▶ 20:00

The YouTuber believes Google is a strong buy, citing its recent antitrust win which avoided a Chrome sell-off, and the judge's recognition of AI competition. He argues that despite recent gains, Google remains undervalued compared to peers, with strong fundamentals, double-digit search revenue growth, and accelerating YouTube and Google Cloud revenues. He also highlights the potential of Waymo.

“I think that Google will continue to go higher. Now at the same time that we celebrate winning in this case, there's some people that are upset that Google wasn't punished more severely.” — ▶ 20:00

The YouTuber advises against Meta pursuing an equity raise through shareholder dilution, despite holding the stock. He argues that Meta's current valuation (19x forward P/E) is too low, making dilution significantly more costly than for a company like Google. He also believes Meta investors are more sensitive to capital return concerns, which could negatively impact the stock price.

“I hope that they don't end up doing this for a couple of reasons. There's two different reasons why I support this with Google and I think it's a good strategy for them, but I don't with Meta.” — ▶ 20:00

The YouTuber prefers Crocs over Lululemon, noting its extremely low forward P/E ratio below 9, which he considers a commodity multiple. He suggests that this low valuation implies minimal downside and significant upside if the company shows any increase in growth, potentially moving to a double-digit P/E ratio.

“Out of the two companies in the situations they sit in right now, I would rather own Crocs than Lululemon. I think the valuation gives it less downside and if there's any increase in growth at all, any revenue increases, Crocs should move up to double-digit PE ratios.” — ▶ 27:00

The YouTuber advises avoiding Lululemon, citing its 46% year-to-date stock decline and challenges like heightened competition, rapidly decelerating revenue, declining earnings estimates, and decreasing free cash flow. He notes the company is shifting from organic growth to paid advertising, indicating fundamental issues.

“The biggest problem that Lululemon's facing is it's dealing with heightened competition. The revenue is rapidly decelerating. The earnings estimates for their growth rate has gone down dramatically. The free cash flow is also declining.” — ▶ 25:45

The YouTuber is very bullish on Google, citing strong double-digit revenue growth across all core segments (Search, YouTube, Cloud, Subscriptions) and leadership in AI. He argues the stock is undervalued with a forward P/E of 18-20 for a company growing earnings at 20% annually, projecting a price target of $240 by year-end and $451 by Q1 2030 based on conservative DCF assumptions. He dismisses bear arguments about AI disruption and increased capex, explaining the latter is for growth.

“I believe Google's headed towards a stock price of $240 per share. We'll see how it goes from the current price to that number in this episode.” — ▶ 01:00

The YouTuber argues that Google is a high-quality company trading at a discount due to perceived AI disruption risks. He compares its faster revenue, free cash flow, and EPS growth to Apple, which trades at a higher valuation, suggesting Google is undervalued given its strong fundamentals and adaptation to AI.

“In every way possible, Google's growing much faster than Apple. And if Google matched Apple's growth rate, people would be saying that the stock is disrupted. It's already priced for failure when the company's succeeding.” — ▶ 34:50

Carlson sees Google as a strong buy, especially after its recent stock dip following increased capex announcements. He contends that the substantial investments in AI and cloud infrastructure are justified by overwhelming customer demand and are expected to generate high, predictable returns, making the company meaningfully undervalued.

“I think that Google is still meaningfully undervalued especially after this trade down” — ▶ 25:10

The YouTuber considers Google a strong buy due to its attractive valuation, trading at an 18.9 forward PE ratio based on 2026 estimates, despite rapid earnings growth. He explains that a temporary low cash conversion rate due to high capex makes it appear more expensive on a free cash flow basis, but this is an accounting discrepancy. Google also demonstrates significant capital return to investors through buybacks and dividends.

“in my opinion right now Google remains a strong buy” — ▶ 13:40

The YouTuber highlights Google's pricing power, exemplified by the aggressive price increases for YouTube TV, which despite customer complaints, continues to grow. He sees this as evidence of Google's vast portfolio of powerful businesses and their ability to raise prices, suggesting that if Google adopted a more cost-conscious culture like Netflix, its stock price could significantly increase.

“Google has powerful businesses with a lot of pricing power and that's illustrated by the growth in YouTube TV even though they've been raising prices aggressively.” — ▶ 35:50

Carlson holds Google, believing its post-earnings dip is due to unfounded concerns about OpenAI's Search GPT. He argues that Google Search's established user base and advanced features make it resilient to disruption, and highlights the strong growth and increasing profitability of Google Cloud as a key positive driver for the company's long-term value.

“Once investors realize that search GPT is not going to steal any meaningful market share from Google I think investors will see this stock as more valuable.” — ▶ 17:50

The YouTuber is highly critical of Tesla, highlighting a 12% year-over-year revenue decline, decreasing operating margins, and flat revenue for over two years. He argues the stock's high P/E ratio (136) is unjustified by fundamentals and relies solely on a speculative narrative around robo-taxis and humanoid robots, which he believes are unproven and face significant competition. He advises against investing based on 'hope' rather than 'well-grounded fundamental research and reasonable valuations.'

“When I look at Tesla, my honest opinion is that it's an incredibly difficult, unpredictable stock that has a lot of downside risk.” — ▶ 30:50

The YouTuber maintained conviction in Netflix despite a significant stock drop and negative sentiment, believing its core thesis of transitioning from cable TV to on-demand streaming remained sound. He argues Netflix is positioned to be a major winner in this shift and that the economics of scaled streaming will eventually be very strong, emphasizing the importance of sticking to fundamentals over market sentiment.

“I continue to believe that Netflix is going to be not only one of the survivors but one of the biggest participants in the new form of entertainment which instead of linear cable television, it's direct ondemand entertainment delivered through the internet.” — ▶ 19:00

The YouTuber expresses strong approval for Netflix's recent strategic shifts, including changes to its company culture, password sharing policy, and introduction of an ad-supported tier. He views these adaptations as signs of a mature company effectively transitioning from hyper-growth to hyper-profit, focusing on margin expansion and cash flow, which he believes is a virtuous trait for long-term success.

“Netflix leadership overall has been good at a lot of things but one thing this company has been exceptional at is understanding what to do and what time to do it at Netflix is a company that is willing to make changes appropriate for the stage of their company they've been able to rewrite their company multiple times and they do it at precisely the right time.” — ▶ 27:00

Carlson is holding Netflix, dismissing the recent boycott calls over a co-founder's political donation as having minimal to no impact on the company's long-term fundamentals. He argues that Netflix cannot control how former executives spend their personal money and points to the company's significant subscriber growth following a previous, more impactful boycott as evidence of its resilience.

“From an investment perspective I believe that this boycott will have very minimal if not no impact on the long term of Netflix.” — ▶ 54:00

The YouTuber discovered Texas Roadhouse through personal experience, observing its consistent popularity and excellent operations. He validated this with fundamental analysis, noting its strong, linear revenue growth compared to competitors, and believes it combines a great brand, product, value, and fundamentals.

“I found this company's metrics and their history astonishingly good. Even when put against the best tech companies in the world, I like the story of the company a lot.” — ▶ Ver clip

Carlson continues to hold Texas Roadhouse, his most profitable investment, due to its exceptional execution and strong earnings report. He points to nearly 15% revenue growth, 46% net income growth, consistent new restaurant openings (around 7% annually), and impressive weekly sales growth, even as competitors struggle. He believes the valuation remains reasonable given the company's quality and outperformance.

“I expect Texas Roadhouse to continue to outperform the market from here.” — ▶ 32:00

The YouTuber considers Costco to have the 'best business model in the world' due to its strong customer loyalty, high retention rates, and annuity-like membership income stream, which translates almost purely to profit. While he acknowledges its exceptional qualities, he is currently holding due to its high valuation and would only buy if its P/E ratio drops below 40.

“I will buy Costco when it goes back down to below a 40p ratio when it gets into the 30s. that's at a more reasonable price, a trailing 30p ratio. But when it's at the 60s and50s, that to me is just too extreme.” — ▶ Ver clip

The YouTuber advises against buying Costco shares at current levels, noting its valuation is at the high end of its historical P/E range (55x vs. 33-55x). While acknowledging Costco as a high-quality company with strong fundamentals, he prefers to buy it closer to a 33x forward P/E. He plans to hold his existing position but not add more.

“I wouldn't recommend buying Costco hair. I'm not buying it hair whenever it pays a dividend I invest it into a different company from what I've seen historically Costco trades somewhere between a 33 and a 55 Ford PE ratio so right now at a 55 it is at the high end of that trading radius I'd rather buy the company when it's closer to the 33 range.” — ▶ 22:50

The YouTuber suggests Costco as a 'buy and hold forever' stock, emphasizing its highly defensible business model centered on membership fees rather than sales margins. This model allows Costco to offer the lowest prices to customers while generating stable, predictable profits from memberships, smoothing out retail volatility and making it difficult for competitors like Walmart or Target to replicate.

“Costco is not a seller of goods that's not the way that they view their business model they view themselves as a buying agent on behalf of their customers.” — ▶ 10:20

The YouTuber incurred his largest loss on Alibaba, attributing it to underestimating the Chinese government's willingness to interfere with its own companies and overestimating Alibaba's competitive strength. He realized the government prioritized power over company profits and that Alibaba's fundamentals decelerated significantly, leading him to sell.

“I underestimated the extent the Chinese government would interfere with their own companies and destroy capital of their largest companies. ... The second thing was I simply overestimated how strong of a company Alibaba was.” — ▶ Ver clip

The YouTuber views Mastercard as a 'royalty-like' business, similar to Warren Buffett's investments, benefiting from the growth of virtually all other businesses that accept its payments. He believes its business model is incredible and still underappreciated by investors, making it a highly profitable and easy holding.

“Mastercard has been a highly profitable holding and a very easy one to hold. It's had virtually no problems, no challenges along the way. It's a company that has an incredible business model that investors still don't fully appreciate.” — ▶ Ver clip

The YouTuber highlights Apple as one of his best investments, noting its transition from a hardware to a software ecosystem, which was underappreciated by the market in 2018. He emphasizes that a company being large doesn't preclude it from significant future growth. He is currently holding the stock.

“One of the major lessons here is just because a company's already really big doesn't mean it can't get a lot bigger.” — ▶ Ver clip

The YouTuber is trimming Apple due to concerns about slow growth, high risk, and lofty valuations, despite the stock being down 13% this year. He notes its high P/E ratio of 28-29 and believes the future remains uncertain, citing issues with Apple Intelligence and a perceived shift in the company's culture regarding product announcements.

“Apple has been the combination of very slow growth high amounts of risk and trading with LOF evaluations that's a combination that it's difficult to get behind and even with it trading down this year being down 13% I still believe there's likely more to go” — ▶ 7:00

The YouTuber views Apple's rumored move to develop in-house Bluetooth and Wi-Fi chips as a positive development, aiming to increase operating margins by reducing licensing fees paid to suppliers like Broadcom. While not a 'huge game changer,' it aligns with Apple's strategy of vertical integration and margin improvement, reinforcing its long-term strength.

“Although I don't see this as a huge game changer for Apple I do see it as a positive thing for the company.” — ▶ 32:50

The YouTuber sold Disney at a loss, regretting not fully appreciating the decline of its linear cable business, which outweighed the growth of Disney Plus. He admits to being greedy and not considering the bearish signals, leading to an 'unforced error' and a significant loss.

“I believe the biggest problem with my analysis on Disney was not fully appreciating how bad a huge portion of their business was. The cable assets, Disney's loss could have been avoided at many, many points throughout history.” — ▶ Ver clip

The YouTuber sold Boeing at a significant loss due to its operational complexity and safety issues, specifically the MCAS system failures. He concluded that he does not trust the leadership or the company's future, and has learned to avoid investing in operationally complex businesses.

“I don't trust the leadership. I don't like how complex the company is, and I just don't think it has a great future. So, I sold the company.” — ▶ Ver clip

The YouTuber quickly sold Domino's after only three months, realizing he had not conducted thorough enough research. He views this as an unnecessary loss and a lesson that long-term investors should avoid short-term buying and selling based on insufficient due diligence.

“If you change your mind only after 3 months of owning a company, that means you didn't do enough research on it or you just made a big mistake during your research.” — ▶ Ver clip

The YouTuber views Amazon as a powerful, dominant, and growing company with diverse revenue streams beyond retail, including advertising, subscriptions, and AWS. He believes its underlying earnings power is increasing, and it trades at a lower PE ratio relative to its earnings growth.

“Amazon is a company that's powerful, dominant, continually growing. It's defeated every bare thesis over the past couple of years. It trades at a lower PE ratio compared to its earnings growth and the underlying power of its cash flows have increased significantly.” — ▶ 29:50

Carlson believes Amazon is significantly undervalued, trading at the same price as Q2 2020 despite its revenue doubling and EPS quadrupling since then. He highlights the shift to higher-margin revenue streams like third-party seller services and advertising, which have grown substantially. He argues that while the stock price has been flat, the underlying fundamentals show aggressive growth and increased profitability, suggesting that current prices represent a very smart long-term buying opportunity.

“I believe investors buying the company for around 170 or 180 in 2020 made the right decision and I believe investors selling the stock today are making the wrong decision.” — ▶ Ver clip

Mark Mahaney, cited by the YouTuber, recommends Amazon as his top pick among quality growth companies, especially after its recent sell-off. He notes its current forward P/E of 25 is historically cheap, making it a compelling valuation for a company that grows earnings quickly.

“I particularly like Amazon with the sell off here we just bumped it up to be our number one pick” — ▶ 26:00

Carlson recommends buying Amazon, believing its intrinsic value has increased despite investor concerns over higher capital expenditures. He argues that Amazon's significant investments in AI and AWS are driven by clear demand and will yield high, predictable returns, making the stock meaningfully undervalued. He also highlights Amazon's broad growth across its businesses and its high revenue run rate.

“I think Amazon is a buy today I continue to hold my full position” — ▶ 27:40

The YouTuber believes Amazon is a buy, citing its explosive profit growth in 2024, nearing his previous $60 billion free cash flow prediction. He expects Amazon to continue outperforming indices due to a strong job market boosting consumer spending, growth in AWS, AI potential, robotics, and Amazon Prime Video's strong position. He raises his price target to $260.

“I'm raising my price Target to now 260 I think this company is going to go up to 260 this year” — ▶ 18:00

The YouTuber recommends ASML due to its unparalleled technological moat in EUV lithography, continuous innovation with new machine generations, and its current valuation being 30% below all-time highs and historically low on a free cash flow and forward PE basis.

“When we're looking at ASML, we're looking at a stock 30% below its all-time highs, trading at a historically low valuation in terms of free cash flow and the Ford PE ratio. It's a company that has an unparalleled technological mode.” — ▶ 26:50

The YouTuber is buying ASML, believing it is undervalued with a current P/E of 29 and a 3.5% free cash flow yield. He highlights its consistent EPS growth (21.6% CAGR over a decade) and expects this to persist due to demand from AI and technology expansion. He also notes its historical valuation is near a 5-year low, suggesting significant upside potential.

“I'm buying more asml today because frankly I believe the company's undervalued” — ▶ 9:00

The YouTuber is buying ASML, believing it is undervalued with a target price of $1100 based on future cash flows. Despite volatile cash flows, the company benefits from strong secular growth trends in the semiconductor industry, with bookings showing signs of acceleration after a previous slowdown.

“I believe this stock is going above $1,000 to 1,100 that's based on the cash flows going 2 years out.” — ▶ 6:00

The YouTuber expresses reservations about ASML as a 'buy and hold forever' stock, despite its strong moat and critical technology in lithography for chip manufacturing. The primary risk identified is the extreme complexity of running the business and the constant need for highly specialized talent to innovate, which makes it vulnerable to talent poaching and operational challenges, unlike more diversified or less talent-dependent businesses.

“The big risk in the long-term durability of asml is the complexity in running the business.” — ▶ 18:50

The YouTuber argues that FICO is an exceptional company with a strong moat, and its recent 30% stock drop due to regulatory scrutiny is an overreaction. He believes the impact of potential changes to credit scoring will be less severe than feared, presenting a buying opportunity for a high-quality company.

“If I have to pick a side today, my guess is that FICO will still be an exceptional investment, especially after this 30% tradeown. This doubt gives you an opportunity to enter into a position on an exceptional company when one regulators targeting the company.” — ▶ 14:50

Carlson acknowledges Fair Isaac's strong financial performance, with 15% revenue growth, 25% GAAP income growth, and 45% free cash flow increase year-over-year, and reiterated guidance. However, he states he does not currently own it and is waiting on the sidelines for an entry point, implying it's not a buy at current valuations.

“I have this one as a top consideration on the watch list, and for now, I'm still waiting on the sidelines for an entry point.” — ▶ Ver clip

The YouTuber advises caution with FICO, despite its dominant market share, due to its reliance on aggressive price increases that attract regulatory scrutiny and potential harm to consumers. He also notes concerns about its weakened balance sheet from debt-funded buybacks and its limited international presence compared to its domestic monopoly, suggesting these factors make it less suitable for a long-term 'forever' hold.

“FICO has relied on their revenue growth and profit growth primarily on aggressive price increases and this is something that brings a lot of scrutiny.” — ▶ 17:00

The YouTuber believes Salesforce is a high-quality, undervalued company despite its recent acquisition of Informatica. He argues that this acquisition is strategic, well-priced, and addresses a weak point in Salesforce's offerings, indicating a more disciplined approach to M&A.

“Salesforce is a very volatile company. It trades up and down after earnings in many cases. Right now, Salesforce still trades at a cheap price, and I expect this company to work its way back to 330.” — ▶ 21:50

The analyst is bullish on Salesforce, citing consistent revenue growth, expanding margins indicating a wide moat, and strong operating and free cash flow growth. Despite low investor expectations, the company shows organic growth across all segments, increasing total performance obligations, and a decreasing stock-based compensation trend, all while maintaining a relatively low valuation.

“I look at Salesforce and I see everything going well with this company I see organic Revenue growth I see share BuyBacks I see free cash flow growth substantial free cash flow per share growth” — ▶ 17:40

Joseph Carlson believes S&P Global is attractively valued despite its recent flat performance, trading at a discount when combining its quality and current valuation multiple. He highlights its 13% revenue growth, $5.5 billion in free cash flow, 42% EPS growth year-over-year, and share buybacks reducing share count by 2%. He also sees the spin-off of the lower-margin mobility business as a strategic move that will strengthen the company's focus on its core, higher-margin data and analytics businesses.

“My largest position is S&P Global and the report was great as you would expect. The stock went up after hours. The company is flat year to date on a down year and this is a company that still today right now I believe is attractively valued.” — ▶ Ver clip

The YouTuber considers S&P Global a buy, describing it as a predictable 'toll booth' company that profits in any market environment. Despite concerns about interest rates affecting its credit rating business, he argues that companies will still issue debt, and S&P Global's diversified revenue streams, including market intelligence and indices, ensure strong, gradual growth and high profit margins. He notes its valuation is attractive, trading cheaper than the S&P 500 average.

“I believe with minimal downside now the valuation isn't so cheap that it's an absolute still investors aren't in panic mode with this company but the valuation remains in my opinion very attractive” — ▶ 21:40

The YouTuber recommends S&P Global as a 'buy and hold forever' stock, citing its durable and predictable revenue streams, particularly from its global credit ratings business and its ownership of major indices like the S&P 500. These segments provide a 'toll booth' on global debt and a continually growing licensed revenue, making the company highly resistant to disruption despite potential competition in other areas like market intelligence.

“S&P Global has that with their different Revenue lines in particular their rating business and their indices business out of all the lines of business these two forms of Revenue are virtually indestructible.” — ▶ 20:00

Carlson is holding S&P Global, despite a slight post-earnings dip, due to its 'fantastic' earnings report and raised free cash flow guidance for 2024. He highlights strong growth across all business segments, particularly credit ratings, and believes the company trades at a reasonable valuation given its expected free cash flow yield.

“I'm happy with S&P Global and Moody's I'm keeping both of these companies.” — ▶ 25:50

Carlson recently invested in Booking Holdings due to its 'breathtaking' fundamentals, including rapid and consistent revenue growth, strong free cash flow generation with low stock-based compensation, and aggressive share buybacks. He notes its high margins (100% gross, 31% operating, 25% profit) and its ability to remain profitable even during the pandemic. Despite media narratives of collapsing travel demand, Booking Holdings beat analyst estimates across all categories, and its CEO confirmed steady global travel, making the company appear undervalued at a PE of 22 and a 5.3% free cash flow yield.

“The reason that I invested in this company is because simply put, the fundamentals of this company, the economics of it are breathtaking. They are shockingly good.” — ▶ Ver clip

Carlson, who is invested in Booking Holdings, notes that Expedia's strong earnings report provides a positive read-through for Booking. He expects Booking to report strong results due to its stronger market position, particularly in the European travel market, and its ability to capitalize on segmentation.

“I already expected a strong report from booking Holdings this quarter but the Expedia report further solidified it” — ▶ 29:50

The YouTuber declares Booking Holdings a buy, citing its current dip as an irrational market reaction to strong job reports, which should actually benefit the company. He highlights its strong competitive advantages over rivals like Airbnb, attractive valuation (19 forward PE, 5.4% free cash flow yield), and its ability to generate substantial free cash flow, which is returned to investors through buybacks and dividends, significantly reducing share count.

“the market is dumb for selling a company like booking Holdings that's reliant on people having jobs spending money when we have a great jobs report this is the exact opposite of what this stock should be doing” — ▶ 40:00

Mark Mahaney, cited by the YouTuber, still considers Uber one of his top picks, believing it is undervalued. The YouTuber agrees with this assessment, suggesting it's a great stock to invest in.

“he still has Uber as one of his top picks which I also agree I think Uber is undervalued and a great stock to invest in” — ▶ 26:30

Carlson is seriously considering buying Uber, validating Bill Ackman's recent investment. He believes Uber is a high-quality business with massive network effects, dominant scale, and a low valuation, trading at a 30 P/E ratio with rapidly growing earnings. He argues that the company's scale and strategic positioning will allow it to navigate the future of autonomous vehicles, making it a strong investment.

“I think in most cases investors that buy here are going to make money and I don't say that about every company” — ▶ 39:50

The YouTuber recommends Uber as a buy, highlighting its cheap valuation at 20 times 2026 multiples and a 4.3% free cash flow yield, combined with rapid growth (17% revenue, 20% trips, 13% users). He emphasizes its strong operating leverage, transitioning from negative to $6 billion in free cash flow, and believes Uber is likely to integrate with future self-driving technologies, securing its market position.

“Every way you look at this company it's cheap” — ▶ 26:40

The YouTuber is trimming Vici, a real estate company, to take profits. Despite its strong performance and outperforming the market during a downturn, he sees it as an opportunity to reallocate funds to more undervalued positions. He still believes Vici is a high-quality company but is reducing his stake to invest elsewhere.

“I look at this as an opportunity to take some gains out of a company that's done really well during a correction and put that money into a different position that is struggling or at least one that's far more undervalued right now” — ▶ 5:00

Carlson believes Microsoft presents a buying opportunity despite recent sell-offs due to increased capital expenditure. He argues that the significant investments in AI infrastructure are highly predictable and driven by strong customer demand, which will ultimately increase the company's intrinsic value and lead to high returns on invested capital.

“as far as I'm concerned this is a buying opportunity for all three of these companies the one that I think is the most Fair valued is Microsoft it's trading closest to its range” — ▶ 24:50

The YouTuber recommends Microsoft as a 'buy and hold forever' stock due to its exceptional durability, diversified revenue streams across productivity software, cloud services, and personal computing, and high recurring revenue from subscriptions. He highlights its strong moat, consistent 70% gross margins, and global diversification as key factors for its long-term predictability and resilience against competitors.

“Microsoft is the essence of durability the stock has three equally sized Revenue paths all of which have very high margins.” — ▶ 7:00

Carlson maintains a 'hold' rating on Microsoft despite a post-earnings dip, attributing the decline to high valuation and slightly lower-than-expected Azure growth. He emphasizes the company's consistent intrinsic value growth, strong revenue, operating income, and net income figures, and robust free cash flow, suggesting that the short-term market reaction overlooks the long-term positive trends.

“As far as I'm concerned Microsoft is still a hold.” — ▶ 14:00

The YouTuber recommends Intuit as a buy, despite its flat stock price over the past year. He argues that the company's intrinsic value has grown significantly, with revenue up 12.48% and free cash flow per share growing 18.51%. He believes the market will eventually recognize this fundamental growth, especially as Intuit integrates AI and expands its online services, setting it up for future success.

“with the flat share price and the growth in the fundamentals I believe it's a buy today” — ▶ 45:00

The YouTuber views Applied Materials as a buy, similar to ASML, due to its critical role in multiple parts of the semiconductor manufacturing process. He notes the stock has traded down from its peak, offering a buying opportunity through its volatility. He believes in strong long-term secular trends for the industry, making AMAT cheap by both PE ratio and cash flow yield.

“Applied material it's cheap by the PE Ratio cheap by the cash flow yield and it's a company that I believe has a great future” — ▶ 33:00

The YouTuber acknowledges Nike's potential for a turnaround due to its strong brand and new management focusing on athletic partnerships and innovation. However, he states he is not buying it as he typically avoids turnaround plays, and expects a slow year in 2025, suggesting investors might miss the stock if they wait for sentiment to change.

“I normally don't invest in turnaround plays so I'm not buying Nike hair that's not my personal investing strategy” — ▶ 29:40

The YouTuber sold Nike long ago due to increasing competition across various segments, including running shoes and athleisure, which eroded its market share. He believes the company lacks a substantial moat against these competitors and its current valuation doesn't account for its fundamental problems, such as declining revenue guidance and loss of focus in key categories like running.

“The reason that I sold out of Nike long ago was because I knew that there's a lot of competitors taking market share from the company I could see all of these different brands really competing fiercely with them not only in the running category but different brands like Lululemon with athleisure there's so many different companies that are also high quality all trying to eat away at the biggest winner here without anything that I consider to be a substantial moat against these competitors it's difficult to want to invest in this company with a valuation that doesn't leave a lot of room for error so even though Nike's down 20% and we could have a quick recovery in the stock as of right now I think they're facing too many fundamental problems I invest in companies that I believe the fundamentals are becoming stronger” — ▶ 26:00

The YouTuber believes AMD is a buy, acknowledging its higher volatility compared to other companies he favors. He argues that despite Nvidia's dominance, AMD is a strong, diversified company with a lower valuation, suggesting significant outperformance potential even with a smaller market share. He notes its increasing stability and profitability, making it attractive after a recent downgrade.

“I believe the potential for outperformance here is very good when we look at AMD the big issue here is the volatility of both its fundamentals and its stock performance throughout its history” — ▶ 34:40

The YouTuber identifies Berkshire Hathaway as an 'indestructible' company suitable for a 'buy and hold forever' strategy. He highlights its massive diversification across dozens of wholly-owned subsidiaries and a significant portfolio of publicly traded equities, generating consistent operating income and billions in free cash flow. The company's nearly $300 billion cash pile further underscores its financial fortress-like status.

“For a company to be buy and hold it needs to be virtually indestructible and the Fortress that Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have architect is certainly in that category.” — ▶ 13:40

The YouTuber selects Visa as the top 'buy and hold forever' digital payment network due to its unparalleled network scale, which makes it highly unlikely to be disrupted despite regulatory scrutiny. He argues that consumer preference for credit and debit card rewards, combined with banks' desire to issue these cards, creates a sustainable growth engine for Visa for decades to come, outperforming competitors like Mastercard and American Express in terms of long-term durability.

“Visa is the most unlikely to be disrupted and that is because on a pure Network basis Visa is the largest.” — ▶ 22:00

The analyst notes CrowdStrike's strong revenue growth and high annually recurring revenue, indicating a solid business model. Despite a recent outage and lawsuit, the stock rebounded after earnings, suggesting investors were bracing for worse news. The CEO's proactive communication is seen as a positive, implying the company is navigating recent challenges without significant damage.

“so far it looks like crowd strikes pass this earnings without much damage” — ▶ 21:50

Carlson advises avoiding CrowdStrike, despite its strong historical fundamentals, due to the severe reputational and financial damage from a recent critical software update that caused a widespread IT outage. He argues that the stock's 40-50% decline doesn't fully reflect the long-term impact of the incident, which exposed critical flaws in their update procedures and sales messaging, making a quick recovery unlikely.

“I don't know how long this will take for crowd strike to recover fully but I do think it will take a bit longer than investors are expecting.” — ▶ 45:00

The analyst believes Nvidia's parabolic growth phase is over, with decelerating revenue and EPS growth, and compressing margins from already high levels. While still an incredible company, the upside potential is significantly reduced compared to previous years, making it less attractive for future gains as it trades closer to expectations.

“the upside in the stock today is far less than it was a year ago the future expected returns are far lower Nvidia will trade closer to expectations and it'll be harder to get gains out of this company” — ▶ 10:00

Carlson maintains a 'hold' on Moody's, citing its strong earnings beat and raised free cash flow estimates. He emphasizes the recovery in its Investor Services segment due to increased corporate debt issuance and the stable, growing subscription revenue from Moody's Analytics, positioning it as a high-quality company benefiting from long-term secular trends.

“I think Moody's is going to continue to do well as there's more and more debt in the future and data becomes more valuable.” — ▶ 22:50

Carlson avoids PayPal, despite its recent earnings bump, noting that while the low valuation offers potential upside, the earnings report was only 'okay.' He observes that active accounts were down year-over-year, though up quarter-over-quarter, and while transactions per account increased, the stock is still trailing the market, indicating it needs more consistent strong performance to warrant investment.

“PayPal needs to continue posting quarters like this for the stock to gain a Resurgence.” — ▶ 36:50

The YouTuber advises investors to continue avoiding Walgreens, labeling it a 'value trap.' He argues that Amazon's existence makes Walgreens an unattractive investment, as Amazon performs all of Walgreens' functions more efficiently and profitably, including pharmacy services. He sees no potential for a turnaround for Walgreens as Amazon continues to grow.

“Walgreens has been a disastrous investment it's been a value trap and a company that I think investors should continue to avoid Walgreens is now saying that they're going to close a substantial number of poorly performing stores and pulling back on the company's plunge into the primary care business you know I could go into Walgreens and go over all their troubles and concerns and woes this company faces but it's really simple why invest in Walgreens when Amazon exists I would never invest in a company like Walgreens so long as Amazon exists Amazon basically does every single thing that Walgreens does except they do it better and more efficiently they do it with a better customer base they do it more profitably Amazon is a destroyer of Walgreens Amazon sells almost everything Walgreens sells except for grocery and Walgreens doesn't sell a lot of grocery Amazon is also in Pharmacy which is another major part of Walgreens I don't believe there will be any turnaround for Walgreens this company is going to continue to struggle as Amazon grows” — ▶ 28:30